FxWirePro: Kiwi uptick on China Trade balance data likely to be short-lived, good to short NZD/JPY on rallies

• Kiwi ignores slight decline in NZ inflation expectations, edges higher after data showed China trade balance returned to surplus in April.
   
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed New Zealand's near-term inflation expectations edged down in Q2.
   
• While China trade balance for April, in Yuan terms, came in at CNY 182.8bn versus CNY 189.2bn expected and CNY -29.8bn last. 
   
• Exports came at +3.7% y/y vs +4.0% expected and -9.8% last, while imports were +11.6% y/y vs +10.4% expected and +5.9% last.
   
• Technical analysis is biased lower. Cloud caps upside. Price action below major EMAs.
   
• RSI shows weakness below 50 levels and bias lower. Momentum studies bearish.
   
• Focus now on RBNZ policy meeting scheduled to be held on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave OCR unchanged at 1.75 percent. 

Support levels - 76.16 (Apr 3 lows), 75.90 (major trendline), 75.54 (Mar 23 low)

Resistance levels - 76.65 (5-DMA), 77, 77.22 (21-EMA)

Recommendation: Good to go short on rallies around 76.55/65, SL: 76.75, TP: 76.20/ 75.90/ 75.55.

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