2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
Gamma ownership in EUR and USD against EMFX space is rendering lucrative options on central bank meetings (c.f. BoE), and in vega-neutral steepener format along steep vol curves.
EURNZD gamma is still good value on RBNZ’s status; +2M/-6M calendars in EURTRY and USDMXN screen cheap.
EURNZD is the NZD-cross that screens the best value in gamma to benefit from such a turn of events (refer above chart; 2W ATM 8.1 vs. hourly realized vol 1-wk 9.0, 4-wk 9.5) and is worth holding into the event.
Directional plays for a tactical NZD bounce could take the form of either 1M 1.64 EUR put/NZD call one touch (5X gearing off spot ref. 1.6815) or 1M 1.671.65 put spread (3.5X).
High carry and chronic risk-reversal underperformance suggest value in at-expiry digital risk-reversals in EURRUB to benefit from higher oil prices.
Carry/vol ratios in long-dated TRY options are testing 2008’s record highs.
Liquidity permitting, long-dated EURTRY straddles are worth owning against a bullish EM portfolio.
