Gold trades higher and jumped more than $15 after Fed policy meeting. Fed has kept its rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 and downgraded growth forecast for 2019 from 2.3% to 2.1% and 1.9% in 2020. The Central bank dot plot confirms that there will not be any rate hike in 2019. It hits intraday high of $1318.99 and is currently trading around $1318.48. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: Bearish. DXY has lost nearly more than 80 pips after Fad meeting.The major support is around 95.80 (200- day MA) and any daily close below this level confirms bearish continuation.(positive for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY declined sharply more than 100 pips yesterday’s high.It is currently trading around 110.48. The near term support is around 110 and any break below targets 109.55/109. positive for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield shown a major sell-off of more than 3.5% yesterday. The yield broken major support of 2.54% low made on Jan 4th 2019.The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.599%. positive for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.413%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 10bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal has broken resistance $1312 and this confirms minor bullishness and a jump till $1323 (61.8% fib).The yellow metal should break above $1323 for further bullishness.Any break above will take the yellow metal till $1330/$1336.
The near term support is around $1305 and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1298/$1292/$1285.
It is good to buy on dips around $1307-08 with SL around $1299 for the TP of $1323/$1330.
