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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1903.25
Kijun-Sen- $1913.92
Gold prices lost their shine after upbeat US economic data. The US economy has expanded at an annualized pace of 2.1% in the first quarter, above the estimate of 1.40%. It hits a low of $1893 yesterday and currently trading around $1908.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped to 239000 for the week ended June 25, the biggest drop since Oct 2021.
Major economic data for the day
US Core PCE index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
ECB Lagarde Speaks (3:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 101.80/101. The near-term resistance is 103/103.85.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 86.80% from 71.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield surged more than 4% after upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -102.50% from -94.8%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1890, a break below targets of $1878/$1868/$1850.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1930/$1942/$1950/$1955.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1928-30 with SL around $1950 for TP of $1878.
