Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.07301
Kijun-Sen- 1.07611
EURUSD halted its four weeks of bearish trends on improved market sentiment. The Republic and Democratic leaders have reached a tentative deal to prevent US default. It hits an intraday high of 1.07434 and is currently trading around 1.07354.
The annual US Core PCE index jumped higher to 4.70%, compared to a forecast of 4.6%. Monthly, Core PCE inflation rose 0.40%, above the forecast of 0.30%. Major economic data for the day
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 63% from 17.40% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield continues to trade higher in hopes of a 25 bpbs rate hike by Fe in the coming months. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -75% from -108%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0700 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0660/1.0600 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0760. The breach above targets 1.0800/1.0865/1.0900.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.07600 with SL around 1.0800 for a TP of 1.0660.