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Copper is well trapped under two force of Bulls and Bears.
- Bulls are pushing prices higher as weak payroll report last week raised the possibility that FED will keep interest rates unchanged and maintain ZRP (Zero rate policy) well into next year. Market based probabilities are predicting a hike at least not before March next year. This is leading to some additional risk taking in the commodity segment.
- Moreover, today Glencore announced production cut in Zinc by as much as 500,000 tons, or 1/3rd of Glencore's total output. This has improved the mood for overall base metals.
While bulls are focusing more on the shorter term, Bears are positioned over much longer horizon.
- In spite of recent improvement in some of the economic dockets as well as risk appetite, nears are leaning to the view that Chinese slowdown is likely to get worse. With that demand outlook has the ability to worsen much faster compared to reduction in supply.
As a trader, however once might play both side or choose a side and wait for the right entry.
- Technically speaking, Copper has formed an important bottom around 2.2/Pound, an area which have been tested twice.
Trade idea -
- Long side - Buy Copper at current price $2.4/pound with target around $2.69/pound and stop loss around $2.2/pound. (shown in chart)
- Short side - Sell Copper above $2.6/pound with stop loss around $3/pound and target around $1.84/pound and $1.36/pound.
