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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2039.17
Kijun-Sen- $1978.53
Gold performed well the previous year on geo-political tensions and the weak US dollar. US Fed hiked rates four times by 25 bpbs in 2023. The yellow metal hit a time high of $2146 and showed a minor sell-off after a dovish rate pause by the Fed. The updated Fed dot plot shows the central bank signaled three rate cuts next year.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Jan increased to 15% from 14.5% a week ago.
Economic calendar -
Jan 3rd, 2024, US IS Manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)
FOMC meeting minutes (7:00 pm GMT)
Jan 4th, 2024, German Prelim CPI m/m
US ADP employment data (1:30 pm GMT)
Jan 5th, 2024, US Nonfarm payroll (1:30 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI (3 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 100.70/100. The near-term resistance is 102/103.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2058, a break below targets of $2050/ $2040/$2035/ $2020/ $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2075 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2090/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $2059 with SL around $2040 for TP of $2150.
Silver-
Silver is consolidating in a narrow range between $24.60 and $23.53 for the past two weeks. It is facing significant resistance at $24.61 (61.8% fib). Any daily close above $24.60 confirms further bullishness, a jump to $25/$26. Minor support is $23.60/$23.20.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices pared most of their gains after hitting a temporary top of $94.99. It is trading weak despite the Red Sea tension. Markets eye OPEC production cut and geo-political tension in the Middle East for further direction.
Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $72/$70.
