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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2059
Kijun-Sen- $1978
Gold trades in a narrow range between $2037.90 and $2009.40 for the past four days. US Advance GDP grew at a faster pace at 3.3%, compared to a forecast of 2%. US durable goods orders came unchanged in Dec. The Core PCE rose by 2.9% last month from 3.2% in Nov. The central bank kept its rates unchanged without making any changes in the policy statement. ECB President Lagarde said "The consensus around the table of the Governing Council was that it was premature to discuss rate cuts," The yellow metal hit a high of $2028 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2027.64.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan unchanged at 97.9% from 97.90% a week ago.
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US dollar index- Bullish only if it closes above 103.69 (200-day EMA). Minor support around 103/102.40 The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2015, a break below targets of $2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2040 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2050/$2062/$2078.
It is good to buy on dips around $1988-90 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver showed a nice pullback of more than $1 following footsteps of gold. It trades above 21 and 55- EMA and below long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any close above $23.15 (200-4H EMA) confirms a bullish continuation. A jump to $23.60/$24 is possible. It is facing immediate support at around $22.50. Any break below target $21.90/$21.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices traded above $78, the highest level since Sep due to the escalation of Redsea tension and upbeat US economic data.
Major resistance- $80/$83.50. Significant support- $77/$74.
Jan 25th, 2024, ECB monetary policy statement (1:15 pm GMT)
Advance US GDP q/q, US durable goods order (1:30 pm GMT)
