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FxWirePro: AUD/JPY slips below 5&10 DMAs to hit fresh weekly lows at 84.53, BoJ major risk event

  • AUD/JPY slumps as dismal Australian CPI report raises bets for RBA rate cut at May 3rd meeting.
     
  • Data released earlier today showed Australia’s Q1 headline CPI figures came in at -0.2% q/q versus +0.2% expected and +0.4% previous. The trimmed mean CPI stood at +0.2% versus +0.5% expected and against +0.6% last.
     
  • Markets now raise bets for rate cuts by RBA in May. Chances for a rate cut by the RBA in May stand at 49% probability vs 16% before the CPI.
     
  • AUD/JPY has been struggling at strong trendline resistance since the 22nd last week. Downside likely to gather momentum post weak Australia inflation data.
     
  • Pair has also broken minor support at 84.60 levels. Tests of cloud top and trendline support at 84 now likely. 
     
  • Break below will find next support at 83.61 (April 15th lows). Resistance on the flipside is seen at 85, 85.07 (10-DMA) and 85.48 (5-DMA).
     
  • BoJ meeting on Thursday is a major risk for the pair. The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver decisive steps to keep JPY lower.
     
  • Our previous call (http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-JPY-rejected-at-strong-trendline-resistance-at-8622-good-to-sell-rallies-199739) has hit all targets.
     
  • We prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of BoJ.
     
  • Market Data
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