Flavio Bolsonaro Rallies Brazil Opposition Ahead of Election

Brazil’s conservative opposition staged a major Independence Day demonstration in Sao Paulo on Monday, as presidential candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro sought to turn growing tensions surrounding the Supreme Court into momentum against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of October’s election.

Around 28,500 people gathered on Paulista Avenue despite cold weather, according to researchers from the University of Sao Paulo’s Monitor do Debate Politico. Organizers framed the rally as a protest against Lula’s government and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, with Brazil’s first-round presidential vote scheduled for October 4.

Moraes has become a deeply divisive figure among Brazilian conservatives after overseeing proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio’s father, over an alleged 2023 coup plot. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 and is currently under house arrest and barred from seeking office.

Flavio Bolsonaro directly linked his election campaign to opposition against both Lula and Moraes, telling supporters that their political influence would end. His running mate, Congressman Alfredo Gaspar, delivered a similar message during the demonstration.

The rally comes as Brazil’s presidential race tightens. A Quaest poll published Monday showed Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 41% in a hypothetical runoff scheduled for October 25.

Monday’s turnout, however, remained below crowds previously mobilized by Jair Bolsonaro. A similar Independence Day gathering last year attracted about 42,000 people, while roughly 185,000 attended a Bolsonaro rally in early 2024.

Political tensions have also intensified inside Brazil’s Supreme Court. Justice Andre Mendonca, appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, recently disclosed a report raising questions about alleged contacts between Moraes and a banker accused of involvement in a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. Moraes subsequently sought an investigation into Mendonca for alleged abuse of authority.

Meanwhile, Lula attended Brazil’s traditional Independence Day military parade in Brasilia without delivering a speech. In a televised address the previous evening, the president emphasized sovereignty and democracy, saying Brazil must resist pressure from foreign powers.

With the first-round election less than a month away and polling increasingly competitive, the Supreme Court controversy is emerging as a central issue in Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign to unseat Lula.