Singapore Maintains Steady Monetary Outlook as Positive Output Gap Persists into 2025 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise as December Decision Looks Increasingly Divided 
BOK Expected to Hold Rates at 2.50% as Housing and Currency Pressures Persist 
BOJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi Set for Key Meeting Amid Yen Slide and Rate-Hike Debate 
BOJ Seen Moving Toward December Rate Hike as Yen Slides 
RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Cools and Growth Outlook Strengthens 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 23rd July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 85.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 81.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 8.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 3.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 54.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased for near month and tightened for the far month.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 85.7 percent probability compared to 86.8 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 60.3 percent probability instead of 55.6 percent probability just a week ago.
