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With January meeting gone, there are eight more Fed meetings scheduled ahead for this year and according to the December projection, the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points in three of them. Let’s look at the market pricing of the hikes,
- March 15th meeting: Market is attaching 73 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.5-0.75 percent, and 27 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent
- May 3rd meeting: Market is attaching 48 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.5-0.75 percent, 43 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, and 9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent.
- June 14th Meeting: Market is attaching 30 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 45 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 22 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent.
- July 26th meeting: Market is attaching 25 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 42 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 25 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.
- September 20th meeting: Market is attaching 17 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 37 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 31 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 12 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 2.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
- November 1st meeting: Market is attaching 15 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 34 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 32 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 15 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 3.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
- December 13th meeting: Market is attaching 6 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 23 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 33 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 24 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 10 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- 1st hike of the year in May and the second hike in November.
