Expected December Employment Report: Job Growth Slows, but Wages and Unemployment Hold Steady

The Non-Farm Employment Change report is due for the December 2024 period and is expected to be released today, January 10, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus among forecasters is that new jobs added came in at about 165,000 and slowed from the previously reported jump of 227,000 jobs in November, a clear indication of a more severe cooling in the labor market as the economy adjusts.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and has shown no significant difference from November, which means it is still pretty stable. This reflects that even if job growth has slowed down a bit, it is still keeping the job market stable overall.

Average hourly earnings will likely increase about 0.3% in the month, keeping the year-over-year rate at about 4.0%. A large monthly gain keeps the force of wage pressures intact even with a hiring slowdown.

The figures expected to appear in this series point to an increasingly softer labor market but still demonstrate healthy growth. The Federal Reserve has said it does not need any additional slowdown in the labor market to achieve its inflation goals, so the employment numbers are going to be important to track for their effects on future monetary policy.