Exiting chances for WTI crude longs, fresh short build ups ahead of crude inventory

The WTI crude futures showing buying interest but struggling to break 42.00 resistance level decisively to form a new short term bull trend.

On NYME, WTI crude futures for delivery in December rose up to $41.55 a barrel.

WTI crude oil futures (CL!1) extended losses from last week's close at 40.74 to 40.06, but that was the time when bulls became alert to push the prices higher to current levels.

Although the daily technicals suggests a short term buy indications as the RSI oscillator signaling divergence already to the rising prices (currently RSI 14 trending at 37.2280), while %D crossover on slow stochastic even below 20 alarms selling pressures (currently %D line at 16.5462 & %K at 13.0120).

Observe how volumes are getting narrowed with every attempt of rising prices which means there is no genuine buying interests.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil output and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last year not to cut their supply quota.

According to recent estimates, OPEC mined approx 31.54 million barrels a day in last month, close to record-highs, as major producers led by UAE focused on defending market share by keeping production high.

The forecast for today's EIA's crude inventory checks to contract to 2.0M from previous 4.2M, this may create little price recovery in crude but certainly not viewed as buying opportunity.

Thus, overall even though we see a short term bullish sentiments in this commodity we are only bullish above 42.00 and 43.26 levels. A decisive breach above may have an intermediate bull run otherwise we continue to carry bearish stance on this commodity.