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  |   Market Roundups


Europe Roundup: Sterling strengthens against dollar after strong UK jobs data, European shares gain, Gold gains, Oil rises on EU's Russian oil ban effort, demand hopes-May 17th,2022

Market Roundup

•French Unemployment Rate (Q1) 7.3%, 7.4% forecast, 7.4% previous

•UK Claimant Apr Count Change -56.9K, -42.5K forecast, -46.9K previous

•UK Mar Average Earnings ex Bonus 4.2%, 4.1%   forecast,4.0% previous

•UK Mar Average Earnings Index +Bonus  7.0%,5.4% forecast,   5.4% previous

 •UK Mar Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 83K, 5K forecast,  10K previous

•UK Mar Unemployment Rate  3.7%,3.8% forecast,3.8% previous

•Italian Mar Trade Balance EU  -0.12B previous

• Italian Employment Change (QoQ) 0.5% previous

•Italian Apr HICP (MoM)  0.6%   forecast, 2.4% previous

•Italian Apr CPI (MoM)  0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous

•EU GDP (YoY) (Q1) 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous

 •EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

•US Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM)   0.6%,0.4% forecast, 1.4% previous

•US Apr Retail Control (MoM)  1.0%,0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous

•US Apr Retail Sales (MoM)  0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous

•Canada Mar Foreign Securities Purchases 46.94B,7.44B previous

•US Retail Apr Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 1.0%, 0.7% previous

•US Redbook (YoY) 12.7%,13.1% previous

•US Industrial Production (YoY)  6.40%,5.47% previous

•US Apr Manufacturing Production (MoM)  0.8%,0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous

•US Apr Capacity Utilization Rate 79.0%,78.6% forecast,  78.3% previous

•US Apr Industrial Production (MoM) 1.1%,0.5% forecast,0.9% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•14:00 US Mar Retail Inventories Ex Auto 2.3%   forecast,1.4% previous

•14:00 US Mar Business Inventories (MoM) 1.9% forecast,1.5% previous

•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -8.5% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•15:35 UK BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

•17:30 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks            
•13:15 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks

•17:00   ECB President Lagarde Speaks  

•18:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks         

•18:30 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks


EUR/USD: The euro rose higher against dollar on Tuesday as hawkish comment from Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot helped the euro jump back above $1.05. Knot said that not only was the European Central Bank set to hike rates by 25 basis points in July, the central bank was also ready to consider a bigger rise if inflation proved higher than expected. Following Knot’s comments, the euro swiftly more than doubled its gains to more than 1%, to $1.0542.The currency had already benefited from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau arguing on Monday that a weak euro could threaten price stability in the currency bloc. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0537(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0623 (61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0464 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0354 (23.6% fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Tuesday after strong labour market data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England would continue to raise rates to fight inflation. Britain's jobless rate hit a 48-year low in the first three months of 2022 and employers paid bigger bonuses to keep or attract staff, according to data that added to bets by investors on further Bank of England interest rate hikes.Sterling climbed by 1.1% against the U.S. dollar and rose by 0.6% against the euro. Investors priced in a 30% chance that the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee will resort to raising interest rates by half a percentage point in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2508 (38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2620 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2361 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2301 (5DMA).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors trimmed bets on whether U.S. interest rate rises will drive further dollar gains. The greenback has edged from a two-decade high this week and was a touch softer across the board, while U.S. bond yields have pulled back slightly as traders reckon aggressive near-term hikes will drag on longer-run U.S. growth. The U.S. currency’s breather pushed the dollar index down 0.79% to 103.35, about 1.5% below last week’s two-decade high of 105.010. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9991 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1023 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9922  (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9876 (38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday on optimism about an easing of China's crackdowns on tech and COVID-19, but concerns about rising prices and slowing growth worldwide kept gains in check. Economic growth fears in the world’s two largest economies have re-emerged following weak retail sales and factory production figures in China and disappointing U.S. manufacturing data. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index published on Monday showed an abrupt fall during May and shipments fell at their fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic. The dollar rose 0.06% against the yen to 129.24. It is getting closer to its high this year of 131.34. Strong resistance can be seen at 129.80 (10 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 130.17 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 128.54 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 127.27(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares opened lower on Monday, with French stocks down almost 1%, as alarmingly weak economic data from China fanned global recession fears.

At (GMT 13:37 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.65 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.66 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.31 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Tuesday as a retreat in the dollar helped bullion recover slightly from the last session's 3-1/2 month lows, but sentiment remained negative as further U.S. interest rate hikes loom.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,832.30 per ounce by 1218 GMT, but traded in a relatively narrow range of about $16. U.S. gold futures gained 0.9% to $1,830.10.

Oil hit its highest in seven weeks on Tuesday, supported by the European Union's ongoing push for a ban on Russian oil imports that would tighten supply and as investors focused on higher demand from an easing of China's COVID lockdowns.

Brent crude rose as high as $115.69, its highest since March 28, and by 1159 GMT was up $1.26, or 1.1%, to $115.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.17, or 1%, to $115.37.

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