Market Roundup
• Switzerland Aug Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.4%,3% previous
•Switzerland Aug Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•German Jul Factory Orders (MoM) 2.9%,-1.6% forecast, 3.9% previous
• EU July Retail Sales (YoY) -0.1%,0.1% forecast, -0.4%previous
•UK Aug Construction PMI 53.6, 54.6 forecast, 55.3 previous
• EU July Retail Retail Sales (MoM)0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:15 US ADP Aug Nonfarm Employment Change 144K forecast,122K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870Kforecast,1,868K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 231K forecast, 231K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 229.00K forecast,231.50K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 2.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9% forecast, 4.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) -0.1% forecast,-0.3% previous
•13:45 US Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 54.1 forecast, 54.3 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 55.2 forecast,55.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.3 forecast,51.4
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 57.0 previous
•14:00 US Redbook (YoY) 5.0% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales 15.40M forecast, 15.80M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.600M forecast, -0.846M previous
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,123B previous
•20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.245Tprevious
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD : The euro gained strength on Thursday as the dollar weakened due to increasing concerns about the US economic outlook. The dollar fell following Wednesday’s data, which revealed that US job openings had dropped to a 3.5-year low in July, indicating a cooling labor market. Additionally, a Federal Reserve survey showed slower economic expansion from mid-July to late August. Traders heightened their expectations for a larger rate cut by the Fed later this month, with 43% now predicting a 50-basis-point reduction, up from 38% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Attention will turn to readings on the US services industry and jobless claims later today, but the primary focus will be on Friday's highly anticipated August nonfarm payrolls report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1077(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1132(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1022(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0968 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. employment data that could set the tone for currency markets.The Bank of England meets in two weeks to set monetary policy. Right now, the derivatives market shows traders see very little chance of a rate cut this month, but a quarter-point cut is fully priced in for November .The BoE was the first among major central banks to raise rates back in 2021, but is likely to be among the slowest to lower them, which has given the pound a lift this year.BoE economist Huw Pill, who voted against a rate cut in August, is scheduled to speak at an event in Brussels later on Thursday. Sterling was last up 0.10 percent at $1.3154, some distance from last week's two-year high at $1.3269.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3223(Aug 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar fell against the Swiss franc on Thursday as it weakened following recent US job openings data. The data bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve might implement a larger interest rate cut later this month. Traders increased their bets on a half-percentage-point reduction at the Fed's next meeting after the report revealed that US job openings had dropped to a 3.5-year low in July, indicating a cooling labor market. This data precedes Friday's crucial August non-farm payrolls report, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans for September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8653(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8618(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8013 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8370(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: USD/JPY dropped to a one-month low as investors digested data indicating that real wages in Japan rose for the second consecutive month in July, Japanese real wages rose for the second consecutive month, possibly setting the stage for the central bank to consider another rate hike later this year. Inflation-adjusted real wages increased by 0.4% year-on-year in July, while total cash earnings climbed by 3.6%. The yen edged 0.26% higher to 143.56 per dollar during morning trade before easing, and has already gained nearly 2% for the week thus far.Strong resistance can be seen at 145.32 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.44 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.25 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks were flat on Thursday as gains in utilities were offset by losses in miners, while investors awaited more economic data from the euro zone and the United States to gauge the outlook for global interest rates.
At (GMT 14:35),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.60 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday fuelled by expectations of a deeper U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which is widely expected to start this month.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $2,516.18 per ounce by 0926 GMT. The bullion hit a record high of $2,531.60 on Aug. 20.
