Market Roundup
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct): -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 1.6% previous.
•Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Oct): 1.1%, no forecast, 1.4% previous.
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Oct): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 1.3% previous.
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Oct): 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13.30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•13.30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% previous.
•13.30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.8% previous.
•13.30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•13.30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.4% previous.
•13.30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Sep): 25.92B previous.
•13.30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Sep): 19.510B previous.
•13.30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous.
•13.30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Sep): 167.0K previous.
•13.30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.065% previous.
•13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.030% previous.
•13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.044% previous.
•15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•16:00 US Federal Budget Balance (Oct) -215.3B forecast, 198.0B previous.
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.780% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as dollar firmed as investors braced for the release of a slew of U.S. economic data following the end of the government's shutdown. Market participants are awaiting U.S. data releases this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, for clues on the health of the world's largest economy.The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday it was working to update its schedule of economic data releases affected by the recently ended government shutdown.Traders are currently pricing in a 46% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut next month, down from 50% in last week. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers,rose 0.14% to 99.46. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Monday calm returned to British markets on Monday after the previous week's sharp swings. UK markets were roiled on Friday by reports Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has no plans to raise income tax rates in the budget, alarming investors who had been anticipating an increase to help fill an expected fiscal shortfall.The drama weighed on British government bonds, and dragged on the pound, which hit its weakest on the euro since early 2023.Things were less dramatic on Monday morning, however, with British government bond yields lower, and outperforming European peers. The Bank of England held rates steady at its meeting this month, but in a close vote with four of its rate-setting monetary policy committee voting to cut rates by 25 basis points.At present, markets see roughly a three in four chance of such a cut at the BoE's December meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3225(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3131(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3012(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of the RBA’s release of minutes from its November policy meeting. The minutes, due Tuesday, come as debate intensifies over how restrictive current monetary settings truly are. Markets are also watching Australia’s quarterly wages report on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a 0.8% increase, keeping annual growth at 3.8%. Such figures would underline persistent labour-market tightness following last week’s strong jobs data. Swaps now assign only a 40% probability of an RBA rate cut in May, as stronger-than-expected data has fuelled expectations that the easing cycle may already be over. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6544(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as broad dollar momentum outweighed Japan’s slightly better-than-expected Q3 GDP data. Japan’s economy contracted nearly 2% in the three months to September—its first decline in six quarters—as U.S. tariffs pressured exports, government figures showed. GDP fell 1.8% year-on-year after a revised 2.3% gain in the previous quarter, beating expectations for a 2.5% drop. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy shrank 0.4%, milder than the forecasted 0.6% decline. Most economists expect the data to have only a limited impact on the Bank of Japan’s rate outlook, though an adviser close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi placed greater significance on the numbers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of the long-awaited U.S. jobs report, which is expected to provide clearer insight into the health of the world’s largest economy.
At (GMT 13:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.72 percent, France’s CAC was last down up by 0.50 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Monday as investors awaited U.S. economic data this week for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory after prices fell more than 2% in the last session on reduced rate cut expectations.
Spot gold was steady at $4,079.48 per ounce as of 1047 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,081.50 per ounce.
Oil prices inched lower on Monday as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub following a two-day halt at the Black Sea port after it was struck by a Ukrainian attack.
Brent crude was down 5 cents at $64.34 a barrel by 1254 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 8 cents to $60.01.
