Europe Roundup: Sterling hits one-year high against weaker dollar, European shares edge higher ,Gold firms,Oil rallies after three straight weekly declines

Market Roundup

• German Mar Industrial Production (MoM) -3.4%,-1.3% orecast,2.0% previous

• German Mar Industrial Production (YoY) 1.56%,-0.50% forecast,0.70% previous

•EU May Sentix Investor Confidence -13.1,-8.0 forecast,-8.7 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•14:00 US Mar Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous

•14:00 US Mar Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous

•14:00 US Apr CB Employment Trends Index 117.37 forecast, 116.24 previous

•15:00 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.120% previous

•15:00 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.900% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•14:00 EU ECB's Lane Speaks

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as euro was supported by expectations the European Central Bank will keep interest rates high for longer than the U.S. Federal Reserve.. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot said rate hikes are starting to have an effect, but more will be needed to contain inflation and he could support a rise to 5% or even higher from the current 3.25%. Fears of a banking crisis have led to a tightening of bank lending standards with a potential adverse impact on growth, injecting some caution into investors’ view of the ECB’s own policy path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1078(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1113(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1024 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0992(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling hit an over-one-year high against the dollar on Monday as the greenback began the week under pressure, with traders betting it might have peaked along with U.S. interest rates while keeping a wary eye on looming inflation and loans data. The pound is in focus this week ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The pound poked its head as high as $1.2668, its highest since April 2022, and was last trading a touch below that, up 0.26% on the day Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2657 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2672(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2576(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2477(38.2%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Monday as strong U.S. jobs data crushed hopes of a pause in monetary tightening, with investors gathering focus on upcoming inflation data for more clues on interest rate trends. The robust U.S. payrolls report last week quashed bets the Federal Reserve would pause rate hikes, and any surprise from consumer prices due on Wednesday would further challenge wagers for a rate cut as soon as September. Forecasts are for a rise of 0.4% in April for both the headline and core CPI, with the annual pace of core inflation likely slowing just a tick away from 5.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8884(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8977 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8864(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8820(Lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japan's yen on Monday ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the week that would offer more cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Wednesday's inflation data, which is expected to show core prices rose 0.4% month over month, is unlikely to support the case for rate cuts. Money markets show investors expect U.S. rates to have now peaked and could end this year below 4.40%. Against that backdrop, the dollar is close to its lowest in a year against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index was last down 0.3% on the day at 101.05, mainly due to gains in the euro , which rose 0.3% to $1.10495. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.20(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.16(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.74(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 133.59(50%fib)

Equities Recap

European shares edged higher on Monday, with energy and bank stocks spearheading gains, but were range-bound ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the week that would offer more cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

At (GMT 12:46),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.98 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.24 percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil rose almost 3% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders took the view that crude's recent price slide was overdone with three straight weekly declines for the first time since November.

Brent crude was up $1.83, or 2.4%, at $77.13 a barrel by 1200 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.06, or 2.9%, to $73.40.

Gold prices ticked up on Monday as the dollar eased and economic risks prevailed, while investors prepared for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,022.01 per ounce by 1156 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% to $2,030.40.