|   Market Roundups


  |   Market Roundups


Europe Roundup: Sterling gains against dollar, European stocks extend gains, Gold firms, Oil drops on oversupply warnings, rising COVID cases-November 17th, 2021

Market Roundup

•UK Oct CPI, n.s.a  113.60, 112.40 previous

•UK Oct CPI (MoM)  1.1%,0.8% forecast, 0.3% previous

•UK Oct Core CPI (YoY) 3.4%, 3.1% forecast, 2.9% previous

•UK Oct PPI Output (MoM) 1.1%, 0.8% forecast, 0.5% previous

•UK Oct Core CPI MoM (MoM) 0.7%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous

•UK Oct RPI (YoY) 6.0%,5.7% forecast, 4.9% previous

•UK Oct CPI (YoY)  4.2%,3.9% forecast, 3.1% previous

•UK Oct PPI Input (MoM)  1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 0.4% previous

•UK Oct Core PPI Output (YoY) 6.5%,5.9% previous

•EU Oct CPI (MoM)  8.0%, 0.8% forecast, 0.5% previous

•EU Sep Construction Output (MoM) 0.93%, -1.28% previous

•EU Oct CPI (YoY)  4.1%,4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous

•EU Oct HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY)  2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous

•EU Oct Core CPI (YoY)  2.0%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) 1.8% previous

•13:30 Canada   Median CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous

•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) 2.8% previous

•13:30 US Oct Building Permits (MoM)  -7.8% previous

•13:30 Canada Oct CPI (MoM)  0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous

•13:30 US Oct Building Permits  1.638M forecast, 1.586M previous

•13:30 US Oct Housing Starts  1.576M forecast, 1.555M previous

•13:30 Canada Oct Core CPI (YoY)  3.7% previous

•13:30 US Oct Housing Starts (MoM)  -1.6% previous

•13:30 Canada Oct Core CPI (MoM)  0.3% previous

•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.398M forecast, 1.001M previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•16:00   German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks

•16:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

•17:40 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks

•14:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks

•14:10 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

•14:30 Canada BoC Financial System Review


EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped on Wednesday but recovered most of the ground after Euro zone Oct inflation data. Euro zone inflation surged to more than twice the European Central Bank's target in October, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat confirmed on Wednesday, with more than half of the jump due to a spike in energy prices.Eurostat said inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.8% month-on-month in October, for a 4.1% year-on-year surge, in line with an earlier Eurostat estimate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1330 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1371 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1302 (23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1204(Daily low).

GBP/USD: The pound was steady against dollar on Wednesday as data showed UK inflation surged to a 10-year high last month, boosting expectations of a rate hike as early as next month.The Bank of England is expected to become the first major central bank to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic crisis rocked the global economy with markets pricing a 61% chance this will happen at a Dec. 16 meeting. British Brexit minister David Frost said on Wednesday that his government’s preference was to strike a deal to improve post-Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland and that the agreement can be reached by Christmas. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3520 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3408 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3383(23.6%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as dollar was propelled higher by better-than-expected U.S. retail data. U.S. retail sales rose faster-than-expected in October, potentially encouraging the U.S. Federal Reserve to accelerate the tapering of its asset purchase programme, as inflation remains stubbornly high. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six rivals - climbed to 96.26, its highest since last July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9337 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9289  (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9251(50%fib ).

USD/JPY: The dollar held near recent highs against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as greenback was supported by  robust U.S. data and hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October, a report showed Tuesday, building on momentum from last week when data showed consumer prices rising at the highest rate since 1990.Money markets are pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate increase in June, followed by another in November. CME data suggest a 50% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by July 2022.The greenback rose as high as 114.98 yen before last changing hands flat at 114.82. Strong resistance can be seen at 114.94 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 115.55 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 114.47 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 114.00 (61.8% fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks inched up for a sixth consecutive session to trade near record highs on Wednesday, as some positive earnings reports helped overshadow worries that soaring natural gas prices were feeding into inflationary pressures.

At (GMT 10:40 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.10  percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Wednesday as concern about inflation kept some investors on edge, while expectations that rising prices may prompt central banks to increase interest rates strengthened the dollar and capped bullion’s advance.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,860.21 per ounce by 0912 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,862.40.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC warned of impending oversupply and as COVID-19 cases in Europe increased the downside risks to demand recovery, though a fall in U.S. gasoline stocks curbed losses.

Brent crude futures dropped 79 cents, or 1%, by 1038 GMT to $81.64 a barrel, erasing Tuesday’s 38 cent gain.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 94 cents, or 1.2%, to $79.82 a barrel, extending a 12 cent loss from Tuesday.

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