Market Roundup
• French S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 48.6, previous: 47.4, forecast: 53.1
• French Services PMI (Sep): 49.6, previous: 48.3, forecast: 55.0
•German Composite PMI (Sep): 47.5, 47.2 previous, 48.4 previous
•German Services PMI (Sep): 50.6, 50.6 forecast ,51.2 previous
•EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 49.6, previous: 48.9, forecast: 51.0
•EU Services PMI (Sep): 51.4, 50.5 forecast, forecast: 52.9 previous
•UK Composite PMI (Sep): 52.6, 52.9 forecast, previous previous
•UK Services PMI (Sep): 52.4, 52.8 forecast ,53.7 previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.6%, forecast: 0.4%, p: 0.7% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Aug): -2.3%, forecast: -2.4%, previous: -2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,834K previous
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 222K forecast, 218K previous
• 12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.75K previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 54.4 forecast, 54.6 previous
•13:45 US Services PMI (Sep): 55.4 forecast, 55.7 previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.1% forecast,5.0% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% previous
•14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Sep): 53.3 previous
•14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep): 50.2 previous
•14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Sep): 53.0 previous
•14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 51.7, forecast 51.5 previous
•14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep): 56.3 forecast, 57.3 previous
•14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage: 59B forecast , 47B previous
•15:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.700% previous
•15:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.650% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 USD Fed Schmid Speaks
•14:40 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped against dollar on Thursday but recovered some ground as traders exercised caution due to developments on the Middle East conflict. Euro earlier slid to a three-week trough after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Investors also keenly awaited a slew of U.S. economic data scheduled for the rest of the week, including closely watched non-farm payrolls data on Friday, to determine the Federal Reserve's likely course of upcoming rate cuts. The euro was flat at $1.1043 after earlier touching $1.1025 for the first time since Sept. 12. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1046 (38.2%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1066 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1026 (Daily low), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against dollar on Thursday after Bailey said in an interview that the central bank could become "a bit more activist" on rate cuts if there was more good news on inflation.Bailey has sounded more dovish in recent weeks, saying last month he was "optimistic" that inflationary pressures would ease sufficiently for the central bank to cut rates further.Srterling dropped 1.2% to $1.31040 after bets on a more gradual pace of rate cuts by the BoE helped sterling hit a more than two-year high just last week and outperform its G10 peers this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3153(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3202(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3080(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level ).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as US dollar strengthened on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. Better than expected U.S. private payrolls data on Wednesday raised expectations for a strong non-farm payrolls reading on Friday that could be critical for the pace of Fed policy easing.The safe-haven U.S. currency also firmed across the board as tensions simmered in the Middle East following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, which sparked a vow of revenge.The dollar index, which measures the currency against the euro, yen and four other top rivals, was up 0.3% to 101.91 at 0956 GMT, after hitting a three-week peak of 101.920. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6858(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6887(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6894(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6812(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit six week high versus the yen on Thursday after new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba came out against another rise in interest rates.Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan is not in an environment for an additional rate increase, an apparent effort to shake off his reputation as a monetary hawk, after a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. After taking the top job on Tuesday, Ishiba immediately called a snap general election for Oct. 27, four days ahead of the BOJ's next policy decision.The new premier has also rolled back previously expressed support for higher corporate and capital gains taxes.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.33 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.71 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.90(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Thursday, weighed down by German technology firm SAP, while investors parsed through key inflation data for the bloc and its major economies.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC finished the was down by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Thursday as U.S. economic data tempered expectations of an aggressive rate cut in November, while investors awaited the upcoming payrolls report for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing plans.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $2,645.38 per ounce by 1125 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,685.42 last week.U.S. gold futures shed 0.2% to $2,665.70 .
Oil prices rose on Thursday on investor concern that a widening Middle East conflict could disrupt crude oil flows from the region, though a stronger global supply outlook kept a lid on gains.
Brent crude futures were up $1.41, or 1.91%, at $75.31 a barrel by 1050 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.45, or 2.07%, to $71.55.
