Market Roundup
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.3%, 1.0% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Oct): 27K, 15K forecast, 17K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Oct): 6.1%, 6.1% forecast, 6.0% previous
•German Unemployment (Oct): 2.856M, 2.823M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Oct): 2.791M,2.806M previous
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.4%, 0.6% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.7%, 0.1% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.4%, 1.9% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.5%, 0.1% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q3): -0.2%, -0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Oct): 95.6, 96.3 previous
•EU Business Climate (Oct): -0.96, -0.76 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Oct): -12.5, -12.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Oct): 13.3, 11.0 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Oct): 6.5, 6.3 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Oct): 7.1, 7.1 previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3): 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3): 2.10%, 2.80% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 3.0%, 3.0% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3): 1.9%, 2.5% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q3): 1.9% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q3): 2.7%, 2.5% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep): 1.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•14:00 Pending Home Sales Index (Sep): 70.6 previous
•14:30 Crude Oil Inventories: 1.500M, previous: 5.474M previous
•14:30 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): 0.329M previous
•14:30 Crude Oil Imports: 0.913M previous
•14:00 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.346M previous
•14:30 Distillate Fuel Production: 0.257M previous
•14:30 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -1.590Mforecast, -1.140M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 15:00 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher after stronger-than-expected growth figures from the Eurozone prompted investors to adjust their expectations for ECB rate cuts. The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, double the growth of Q2 and exceeding forecasts of 0.2%.Germany surprised analysts by avoiding recession with a growth rate of 0.2%, while France and Spain reported stronger-than-anticipated growth. In contrast, Italy's economy stalled.This week, attention turns to inflation figures, with Eurozone inflation expected to rise slightly to 1.9%..Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Wednesday as British bond yields dropped ahead of the new Labour government's first budget, while a gauge of expected volatility over the next week shot to its highest since March 2023.Labour's first budget in 14 years, expected at around 1230 GMT on Wednesday, will end months of speculation about how much Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer will borrow for infrastructure investment and how hard they will hit taxpayers.Sterling GBP=D3 was last down 0.35% on the day at $1.297, pulled lower by a fall in British bond yields that made the currency look less attractive relative to its peers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2978(5 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3028(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2922(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar recovered from 2 and half month low against dollar on Wednesday as investors digested Australian inflation figures. Australian data showed consumer prices rose 0.2% in the third quarter, a little lower than expected, bringing annual inflation down to a 3-1/2-year low of 2.8% and back in RBA’s2%-3% target band. Headline inflation fell due to government cost-of-living subsidies and lower petrol prices, though services inflation remains stubbornly high. The Aussie AUD=D3 slipped 0.1% to hit $0.6578, the lowest level since mid-August, after falling 0.3% overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6632 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6678 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5681 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5551(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hovered near three-month highs against the yen on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the latest Bank of Japan policy decision. The Bank of Japan Policy Board is likely to signal a hold at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. Yet many in Tokyo still see the BOJ raising rates again before year-end, and the market will be looking for signals of future moves in the BOJ's outlook and press conference. The consensus is for no change in policy at the current meeting. Given summer weaknesses in exports and household spending, and recent changes in Japan's political scenario, the central bank will not want to alter policy at this time. The dollar was last up 0.12% on the day at 153.47 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares hit their lowest level in more than a month on Wednesday, as disappointing earnings reports dented risk sentiment, while investors parsed through a slew of economic data from across the region.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a record high on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race spurred demand for safe-haven assets, while traders awaited cues on interest rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,781.51 per ounce by 0925 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,789.73 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,793.50.
Oil prices held steady near one-month lows on Wednesday, after sliding in the previous two sessions, as markets weighed a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and rising OPEC+ crude supplies against a possible drop in U.S. fuel stocks and demand concerns.
Brent crude futures gained 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.50 a barrel by 0957 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged up 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $67.56 per barrel.
