Market Roundup
•Swiss Trade Balance (Oct) 4.319B, 4.760B forecast, 3.990B previous
•German PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%,0.0% forecast ,-0.1% previous
•German PPI (YoY) (Oct) -1.8%,-1.9% forecast -1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep): 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous.
• 13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Sep): 34.2 forecast, 34.2 previous.
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,957K previous.
• 13:30 US Government Payrolls (Sep): -16.0K previous.
• 13:30 US Housing Starts (Sep): 1.320M, 1.307M previous.
• 13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep): -8.5% previous.
• 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 232K previous.
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 58.00K previous.
• 13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep): -8K, -12K previous.
• 13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 53K, 22K previous.
• 13:30 US Participation Rate (Sep): 62.3% previous.
• 13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov): 1.0 forecast, -12.8 previous.
• 13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Nov): 36.2 previous
• 13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Nov): 25.20 previous
• 13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Nov): 4.6 previous
• 13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Nov): 18.2 previous
• 13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Nov): 49.20 previous
• 13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 62K forecast, 38K previous.
• 13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep): 8.1% previous.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Sep): 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous.
•13:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Oct): 5.5% previous.
•13:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.6% forecast, 1.7% previous.
•13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Oct): 8.4% previous
•14:15 Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep): 77.3% forecast, 77.4% previous.
•14:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous.
•14:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 0.87% previous.
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Oct): 4.08M forecast, 4.06M previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct): 1.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as dollar gained reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Traders are awaiting the release of September's delayed jobs report, due for release later in the global day, to provide clues on the Federal Reserve's next move.Minutes from the Fed's October meeting released on Wednesday showed it cut interest rates even as policymakers cautioned that doing so could risk entrenched inflation and a loss of public trust in the U.S. central bank.Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting on December 10, down from a 50% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors were cautious ahead of the release of the delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. U.S. non-farm payrolls report scheduled for later in the day after being delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown. The data is expected to provide further cues on the Fed's policy trajectory.Economists polled expect the report will show that employers added 50,000 jobs during the month. Meanwhile,data on Wednesday showed British consumer price inflation fell to 3.6% in October, the first drop since May, with traders increasing bets the Bank of England will cut interest rates in December.The data cemented expectations that the BoE could cut interest rates in December, while elsewhere investors struggled for direction and U.S. agencies cleared a backlog of data after a prolonged government shutdown. Markets now see an 86% chance of a 25-basis point BoE rate cut in December, up from an 80% chance priced on Tuesday, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as a sharp pullback in Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets boosted the greenback. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting showed on Wednesday that many policymakers were opposed to a cut in December. Fed fund futures tumbled to imply just a 30% probability of a quarter-point reduction next month, down from 50% a day earlier.Much is now riding on the long-delayed release of the U.S. jobs data for September later in the day, which could still revive the chances for a Fed cut next month if it surprises on the downside. The median forecast is for a gain of 50,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. The Aussie was down $0.6477, having dropped 0.5% overnight to as low as $0.6451, the weakest level in a month Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar extended gains against the yen on Thursday as the Japanese currency continuing to slide on expectations that authorities are unlikely to step in immediately to curb its weakness. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said foreign-exchange issues were not discussed in her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen has fallen around 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi became party leader, despite rising Japanese yields, as investors worry about the heavy borrowing required to fund her stimulus plans. Traders now expect potential intervention from Japanese authorities near the ¥160 level or if the currency experiences further abrupt moves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.56(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Thursday, lifted by a global relief rally after AI bellwether Nvidia delivered strong earnings, while investors looked ahead to the release of delayed U.S. jobs data.
At (GMT 13:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.06 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged up on Thursday after falling in the previous session, boosted by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and a general risk-asset market rally.
Brent crude futures were up 57 cents, or 0.9%, at $64.08 a barrel at 1101 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 51 cents, or 0.9%, higher at $59.95.
Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited a crucial U.S. jobs report, which could shed light on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Spot gold were steady at $4,074.09 per ounce at 1240 GMT, recovering some of its earlier 1% fall. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to $4,073.70 per ounce.
