Market Roundup
•Irish Jul HICP (YoY) 1.5%,1.5% forecast,1.5% previous
•Irish Jul Irish HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•Irish Jul Irish CPI (YoY) 2.2%,2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 241K forecast,249K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K forecast, 1,877K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 238.00K previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Trade Balance -1.93B previous
•14:00 US Jun Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.4% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.285% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.230% previous
•16:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Evengts And Other Releases(GMT)
•19:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday but gains were limited as investors turned cautious ahead of a jobs report. Global markets are experiencing heightened volatility this week. Dour economic reports, combined with the unwinding of currency carry trade positions, have pushed the Japanese yen higher after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates on July 31.The market's attention is now on the U.S. weekly jobless claims data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report is expected to show a slight decrease in the number of Americans claiming state unemployment benefits for the week ending August 3. German inflation data is due on Friday, where markets will get a clear picture on Europe's largest economy as it grapples with a likely recession. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0977(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0903(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839(50%fib).
GBP/USD: he British pound edged up on Thursday, but remained close to this week's one-month lows against the dollar, as a sense of stability returned to markets after an intensely volatile start to the week. The Bank of England's knife-edge decision to cut interest rates last week dented the pound. But since then, concern about a hard landing for the U.S. economy, among other factors, has triggered a selloff in risk assets, sweeping sterling lower along with other global markets. Sterling was last up 0.1% on the day at $1.27025, but still headed for a fourth weekly decline, having fallen nearly 1% so far this week, marking its longest stretch of weekly losses in almost a year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2855(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2596(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors grew cautious ahead of a jobs report, following last week's weaker-than-expected economic data that sparked fears of a recession. The market's attention has shifted to the U.S. weekly jobless claims data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show a slight decrease in the number of Americans claiming state unemployment benefits for the week ending August 3. Additionally, comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who will be speaking at 3 p.m. ET, will be also be closely monitored for any hints about the U.S. central bank's next move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8630 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8686 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8559 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8503 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Thursday as yen firmed as investors weigh the unwinding of popular carry trades. The yen was last 0.53% higher at 145.95 per dollar, having dropped 1.6% on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of a near-term hike in interest rates.The Japanese currency started the week by touching a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar, a far cry from the 38-year lows it was rooted at in early July as soft U.S. jobs data last week stoked recession worries and roiled investors. The contrasting opinions from the summary on Thursday and Uchida on Wednesday on whether the BOJ will continue to raise rates or pause as a result of market volatility will likely keep investors skittish.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.87(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.80 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.43(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.00(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark stock index lost over 1% on Thursday, led by losses in the technology sector, and was set to wipe out all gains from the previous session, mirroring the gloomy sentiment seen in Asian markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.88 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated on rising bets that the U.S. interest rate cut cycle may start in September, while investors awaited the weekly jobless claims data.
Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,410.69 per ounce by 1149 GMT, on track to snap a five-session losing streak. U.S. gold futures were up 0.7% at $2,450.40.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday after two sessions of gains, with growing supply risks in the Middle East offsetting demand concerns that had pushed prices to their lowest since early 2024 at the start of the week.
Brent crude futures fell 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $78.25 a barrel by 1100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $75.25.
