Market Roundup
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Dec) -17.5, -12.4 forecast, -12.8 previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Nov) -37, -38 forecast, -27 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.342% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.866% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.661% previous
•14:00 Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q3) 9.8% previous
•15:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Nov) 107.66 previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct) 0.2%, -0.2% forecast
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.400% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.305% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors were on edge ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting later in the week. European Central Bank is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. On the data front, Investor morale in the euro zone dropped to its lowest level in over a year in December, according to a survey released on Monday. Germany continued to weigh on the region's performance, with snap elections in February failing to boost confidence. The Sentix index for the euro zone fell to -17.5 in December, down from -12.8 in November, marking the lowest reading since November 2023 and a sharper decline than the -13.5 forecast by analysts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0605(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0637(30SMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0458(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0417(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose slightly on Monday as investors awaited US inflation ireport this week, which might impact the Federal Reserve's forthcoming interest rate choice. Core U.S. inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday, and a figure exceeding the +0.3% prediction would undermine market confidence in a Fed rate cut in December. The implied likelihood stands at 83%, with an additional 75 basis points of easing factored in for the upcoming year. The UK possesses a comprehensive data timetable featuring GDP, construction, trade, industrial output, manufacturing, and consumer inflation expectations, offering a wide overview of the economy. The pound rose 0.29% against the dollar to $1.2777, following a decline of 0.15% on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2866(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as traders brace for Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in December. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to deliver a speech on Australia and the global economy the day after the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on interest rates. Meanwhile, Assistant Governors Brad Jones and Sarah Hunter will be speaking on Thursday and Friday, respectively. At GMT 05:28, The Aussie was trading down 0.10% to $0.6381 after having dropped 2% last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.63826(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthen against the yen on Monday as investors looked for greater clarity regarding the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Economically, Japan's growth in the July-September period outpaced initial forecasts, supported by improved estimates for capital investment and exports. This has maintained market hopes for a possible interest rate increase by the central bank. Updated information from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's GDP expanded by an annualized 1.2% in the third quarter, exceeding economists' predictions and the initial estimate of 0.9%. The Bank of Japan will scrutinize this data in its upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19, with some analysts anticipating a potential rise in short-term interest rates from the present 0.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.97 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.62 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.82(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks remained close to six-week highs on Monday, buoyed by strong performances from mining and luxury goods sectors, after indications emerged that China would introduce fresh stimulus to address its economic slowdown.
At GMT 12:33,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.51percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped 1% on Monday, driven by China’s central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month break, alongside growing expectations of an interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Spot gold gained 1% to $2,657.98 per ounce, as of 1103 GMT. U.S. gold futures added 0.8% to $2,679.70.
Oil prices rose by over 1% on Monday as China, the top importer, signaled its first move toward loosening monetary policy since 2010, aiming to support economic growth, according to state media reports citing a Politburo meeting.
Brent crude futures were up 84 cents, or 1.18%, to $71.96 per barrel by 1136 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 91 cents, or 1.35%, to $68.11.
