Market Roundup
•Italian Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.4, 48.0 forecast, 47.4 previous
•French Aug Manufacturing PMI 43.9, 42.1 forecast, 42.1 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 42.4 ,42.1 forecast, 42.1 previous
•Italian GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.9%,0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU Aug Manufacturing PMI 45.8, 45.6 forecast, 45.6 previous
•UK Aug Manufacturing PMI 52.5,52.5 forecast, 52.5 previous
•Italian Jul PPI (YoY) 1.3%, -2.5% previous
•Italian Jul Italian PPI (MoM) -1.1, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2 .9999 previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.372% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.285% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 13:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Monday as traders reduced their expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing. The focus is now shifting to a critical U.S. jobs report due later this week. Analysts noted that a U.S. public holiday on Monday might lead to a slow start for the dollar, but the rest of the week will feature a steady stream of macroeconomic data, culminating in the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Economists forecast an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to edge down to 4.2%. The dollar index measure against six major peers weakened by 0.10% to101.65, after hitting 101.79, a level not seen since Aug. 20.The euro firmed to$1.1062, after hitting $1.1043, its lowest since Aug. 19 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1128(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1030(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0968 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors were awaitied a slew of domestic data and across major economies, such as the U.S. and Europe, to position for a month dominated by central bank policy decisions. Trading volumes are expected to be light throughout the day due to holidays in the United States and Canada. U.S. employment data, including the payrolls report for August, could help determine the quantum of an all-but-certain September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Back home, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and housing data is due this week, while producer prices and retail sales are some of the key data on investors' Europe watch list. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3284(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3315(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(50%fib).
.AUD/USD: the Australian dollar strengthened against dollar on Monday as investors awaited the June-quarter GDP report to assess future interest rate moves. This report, due this week, could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions when they meet later this month. The RBA has maintained interest rates at 4.35% since November, citing a still-hot labor market as a reason against a near-term cut. The Aussie was trading at $0.6763 after reaching an eight-month high of $0.6823. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6785(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6826(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6751(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6699(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen after data showed Japan's factory activity slowed in August. Japan’s factory activity contracted at a slower pace in August thanks to a recovery in output and new orders, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, offering some hope for an economy that is starting to find its feet.The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in August versus 49.1 in July, and was up from 49.5 reported in the flash reading. It remained below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for two straight months. The dollar rose as much as 0.05% to 146.26 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.67(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.95(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell slightly on Monday as investors braced for a data-packed week culminating in a U.S. jobs report that could decide whether a rate cut expected this month will be regular or super-sized .
At (GMT 10:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended losses on Monday on expectations of higher OPEC+ production from October while signs of sluggish demand in China and the United States raised concerns about future consumption growth.
Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $76.72 a barrel by 0815 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $73.41.
Brent and WTI had lost 1.4% and 3.1% respectively on Friday.
