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Market Roundup
• EU CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.2%, 3.3% forecast, 2.9% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 2.9% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Aug) 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Aug) 3.2%, 2.9% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Aug) 103.73, 103.70 forecast, 103.24 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•11:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 3.75% forecast, 3.75% previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut (Sep) 0 forecast, 0 previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike (Sep) 3 forecast, 3 previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Sep) 6 forecast, 6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday as easing oil prices and a pause in the global bond selloff improved risk sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate hike. Crude prices extended losses for a second session following reports of Saudi Arabia offering extra crude cargoes through Oman, but Brent crude futures stayed above $100.On the data front, Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 3.2% in August 2026, matching May’s two-and-a-half-year high but easing slightly below the preliminary 3.3% estimate.Inflation remained well above the ECB’s 2% target, with higher energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict driving much of the increase. Energy inflation surged to 14.3%, its highest since January 2023, while inflation in unprocessed food and non-energy industrial goods also picked up.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1566(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1609(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1463(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1339(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision later in the session. The BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, with markets focused on any signals over whether elevated energy prices could prompt a rate hike in November.Markets continue to price at least 43.5 basis points of BoE tightening by year-end. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signalled another increase in the coming months, as newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh joined a unanimous vote in favour of the move.The Fed’s decision comes amid a surge in oil prices in recent months, driven by the Middle East conflict, which has fuelled inflation and prompted policymakers globally to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3456(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3526(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3365(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3286(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened greenback on Thursday as investors took profits on the dollar’s rally following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, as expected, while also projecting at least one more increase by December. The Fed's hawkish shift only reinforced expectations for further hikes in Australia and New Zealand, along with Japan, the EU and the UK.Markets imply an 87% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift its 4.35% cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting on September 29, and is almost fully priced for a move to 4.85% by February. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor developments in the Iran-US war and its impact on oil prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7166(SAM20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7238(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7114 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07094(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ’s rate-hike path supported the yen.The BoJ is expected to lift rates to their highest level in 31 years on Friday and indicate a willingness to continue raising borrowing costs amid persistent oil-driven inflation pressures.The expected BoJ hike would follow the ECB’s and Fed move , underscoring the focus on containing inflation.Markets have nearly fully priced a BoJ hike and are now looking to Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues on the timing and pace of additional tightening.Ueda faces a major communication challenge at Friday’s post-meeting briefing. While the BoJ wants to avoid committing to another early hike, reiterating its data-dependent stance could trigger renewed yen selling and lift import costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.75(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.28(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.95(Sep 24th low ) a break below could take the pair towards 154.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Thursday as easing oil prices and a pause in the global bond selloff improved risk appetite following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated interest-rate hike.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.44 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 1% on Thursday as a weaker dollar and easing oil prices supported the precious metal, while investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and outlook for further tightening.
Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,312.05 per ounce, as of 0848 GMT, after hitting a near six-week low on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.8% to $4,351.
Oil prices eased on Thursday, extending losses as reports of additional Saudi crude shipments through Oman eased supply concerns, though prices remained above $100 a barrel amid fears that the Middle East conflict could widen.
Brent crude futures were down $1.09, or 1.03%, to $104.74 a barrel at 0801 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were down 83 cents, or 0.81%, at $101.6 a barrel. Both contracts fell about $3 on Wednesday.
