Europe Roundup: Pound slips against dollar , European shares dip, Gold falls to two-week low,Oil up more than 2% -September 1st,2026

Market Roundup

• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -3.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous

• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) -2.5%, 5.3% previous

•Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 2.3%, 1.6% forecast, 1.9% previous

•HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.6, 51.4 forecast, 51.3 previous

•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.1, 51.5 forecast, 49.8 previous

•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.3, 54.1 forecast, 52.2 previous

•Italian GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 0.8% previous

•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous

•S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.4, 54.3 previous

•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.7, 52.8 forecast, 51.9 previous

•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.7, 51.5 forecast, 51.9 previous

•EU CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.3%, 3.3% forecast, 2.9% previous

•EU Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.4%, 6.3% forecast, 6.4% previous

•EU CPI (MoM) (Aug) 2.9%, 0.2% previous

•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous

•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Aug) 2.1%, 2.2% previous

•EU CPI, n.s.a (Aug) 103.70, 103.24 previous

•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.0% previous

•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.0% previous

•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.9, 53.2 forecast, 53.9 previous

•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.6, 55.2 forecast, 55.6 previous

•US JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.271M, 7.330M forecast, 7.182M previous

•US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul) -0.5%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous

•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug) 51.2, 52.5 forecast, 52.8 previous

•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug) 71.1, 70.5 forecast, 71.1 previous

•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Aug) 53.7, 56.8 forecast, 56.7 previous

•US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep) 45.6, 46.2 forecast, 45.1 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro  edged lower  as dollar strengthened on Tuesday as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities sent oil prices higher, fuelling inflation worries.U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran after the first exchange of direct attacks in a month, pushing oil prices up over 2%.Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 68% odds of a September rate hike, up from 35% before Warsh's comments on Friday.August's jobs and consumer price inflation data, which are both due before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, may now be key to whether the U.S. central bank hikes next month.This Friday's jobs report is expected to show that employers added 56,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1680(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1734(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1636(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower  on  Tuesday  as dollar firmed on renewed flare-up in U.S.-Iran hostilities ​that revived inflation concerns. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran after the two sides exchanged direct attacks for the first time in a month.Economic data on Tuesday painted a mixed picture. Britain's manufacturing activity in August expanded at its slowest pace ⁠since ​March while BOE data showed that lenders approved the ​fewest mortgages in July since January 2024. The economy remains resilient, however, with GDP rising 0.3% in the latest month ​and 0.4% over the latest three-month period..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3604(Aug 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3526(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3481(Aug 14th low).

 AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased  on Tuesday as investors focus shifted to upcoming Australian  and US economic releases and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy stance.Markets will   focus on upcoming Australian economic data. Australia’s Q2 current-account figures are due Tuesday, followed by Q2 real GDP on Wednesday, with economists expecting quarterly growth of around 0.3%.Key U.S. data this week include job openings, the ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls ⁠data that will be scrutinised for clues on labour market health and the interest rate outlook.Markets now imply a 54% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates a quarter point to 4.60% at its meeting on September 29, compared with just 10% a week earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7201(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07054(SMA 20)

USD/JPY:  The U.S. dollar hovered near 160 on Tuesday  after ​U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ramped up pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates this month.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she met with ​Bessent and agreed that orderly yen movements are critical for global market stability.Japan and the United States agreed to continue coordinating to achieve "orderly" yen moves, which were crucial for global market stability, Finance Minister ‌Satsuki Katayama said after a meeting with her U.S. counterpart Scott Bessent.The BOJ next meets for a policy decision on September 17 and 18, when markets nearly fully expect it to ​raise rates to 1.25% from 1% following a hike in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.73(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  159.54(Daily  low) a break below could take the pair towards 159.05(SMA 20).

Equities Recap

European shares ​dipped on Tuesday, pressured by a fresh rise in government bond yields as investors braced for higher ‌interest rates.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down  by 0.51percent, Germany's Dax  was down  by 1.35 percent, France’s CAC was down  by 0.64 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold fell over 2% to its lowest level in two weeks on Tuesday, weighed down by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, with the breach of its 200-day moving average adding to selling pressure..

Spot gold was down 2% at $4,360.39 per ounce at 09:58 a.m. ET (1358 GMT), after ​touching its lowest since August 19 at $4,362.89 earlier in the session. Bullion dropped ​below its 200-day moving average, which is currently at around $4,528, on August ⁠28.

Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Tuesday as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting revived concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures were up $2.17, or 2.4%, at $92.66 a barrel by 1302 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $2.48, or 2.89%, at $88.24.