Market Roundup
- Eurozone Jan 2019 retail sales yy increase to 2.2 % (forecast 1.9 %) vs previous 0.3 % (revised from 0.8 %)
- Eurozone Jan 2019 retail sales mm increase to 1.3 % (forecast 1.2 %) vs previous -1.4 % (revised from -1.6 %)
- United Kingdom Feb 2019 reserve assets total decrease to 174993.49 usd vs previous 180845.17 usd
- United Kingdom Feb 2019 Markit/CIPS service PMI increase to 51.3 diff.idx (forecast 49.9 diff.idx) vs previous 50.1 diff.idx
- United Kingdom Feb 2019 new passenger cars registration decrease to 81969 no. Of vs previous 161013 no. of
- Italy Q4 2018 gdp final QQ stays flat at -0.1 % (forecast -0.2 %) vs previous -0.1 % (revised from -0.2 %)
- Eurozone Feb 2019 Markit composite final PMI increase to 51.9 diff.idx (forecast 51.4 diff.idx) vs previous 51.4 diff.idx
- Eurozone Feb 2019 Markit service final PMI increase to 52.8 diff.idx (forecast 52.3 diff.idx) vs previous 52.3 diff.idx
- Germany Feb 2019 Markit composite final PMI increase to 52.8 diff.idx (forecast 52.7 diff.idx) vs previous 52.7 diff.idx
- Germany Feb 2019 Markit service PMI increase to 55.3 diff.idx (forecast 55.1 diff.idx) vs previous 55.1 diff.idx
- France Feb 2019 Markit composite PMI increase to 50.4 diff.idx (forecast 49.9 diff.idx) vs previous 49.9 diff.idx
- France Feb 2019 Markit service PMI increase to 50.2 diff.idx (forecast 49.8 diff.idx) vs previous 49.8 diff.idx
- Italy Feb 2019 Markit/IHS service PMI increase to 50.4 diff.idx (forecast 49.4 diff.idx) vs previous 49.7 diff.idx
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Department of Commerce will release its building permits report for the month of January. The indicator came in at 1.326 million-unit pace in December.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Financial firm Markit releases final U.S. composite PMI for the month of February. The index posted a final reading of 55.8 in the previous month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Markit Economics reports final U.S. services PMI for the month of February. The index posted a final reading of 56.2 in January.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to report that U.S. non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index rose to a final reading of 57.2 in February from 56.7 in January.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The U.S. new home sales are expected to have decreased 9.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in December from 657,000 units in November.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Investor's Business Daily (IBD)/ TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) will release U.S. Economic Optimism index for the month of March. The indicator rose to 50.3 in February.
- (1400 ET/1900 GMT) The U.S. reports its monthly budget statement for the month of January. The government is likely to show budget deficit narrowed to $11 billion from $14 billion in the previous month.
- (1630 ET/2130 GMT) API reports its weekly crude oil stock.
Key Events Ahead
- (0735 ET/1235 GMT) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on the current economic landscape in the US in Boston
- (0930 ET/1430 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari gives testimony before the Minnesota Senate Finance Committee in St. Paul, Minn
- (1035 ET/1535 GMT) BoE Governor Mark Carney participates in House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing in London
- (1130 ET/1630 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Moving the Needle in Rural Communities" before the Virginia Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade in Richmond, Virginia.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index rose, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session, as the U.S. Treasury yields resumed rise. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent up at 96.75, having touched a high of 96.82 on Monday, its highest since February 19. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 103.79 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro slumped, extending losses for the third straight session, amid expectations that the European Central Bank will delay hiking interest rates until next year and soon re-launch long-term loans to banks. Moreover, the selling pressure intensified after data showed Italy's economy contracted by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter due to a sharp inventory reduction, raising a preliminary estimate of a 0.2 percent fall in gross domestic product. The European currency traded 0.1 percent down at 1.1326, having touched a high of 1.1419 on Thursday, its highest since Feb. 5. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -55.22 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1371 (Feb. 20 High), a break above targets 1.1417 (Jan. 25 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1309 (Mar. 4 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1289 (Feb. 18 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar rallied, drifting closer to a 2-1/2 month peak touched last week, supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields as recent data eased fears of a potentially rapid loss in economic momentum. The major was trading 0.2 percent up at 111.95, having hit a high of 112.07 on Friday, its highest since December 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -56.03 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. building permits, new home sales, monthly budget statement and non-manufacturing PMI from both Markit and ISM. Immediate resistance is located at 112.20, a break above targets 112.60 (Dec. 20 High). On the downside, support is seen at 111.31 (5-DMA), a break below could take it lower at 110.66 (Feb.28 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling plunged to a 1-week low, after the European Central Bank and the Bank of England activated a standing currency swap line, stepping up their preparations for Britain's possible departure from the EU later this month. The major traded 0.1 percent down at 1.3161, having hit a high of 1.3350 on Wednesday; it’s highest since July 9. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -64.85 (Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3240 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.3362 (July 9 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3093 (Feb. 26 Low), a break below targets 1.3011 (Feb. 20 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.05 percent down at 86.03 pence, having hit a high of 85.28 on Wednesday, it’s highest since May 2017
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased, extending prior session losses, as the greenback surged, shored up by a resilient U.S. economy. The major trades 0.2 percent up at 1.0010, having touched a low of 0.9926 on Thursday; it’s lowest since February 1. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 19.29 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0024 (February 22 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0054 (February 18 High). The near-term support is around 0.9921 (January 25 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9889 (December 7 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares surged amid hopes of a truce to the protracted U.S.-China trade war, while sterling eased amid persisting Brexit fears.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index advanced 0.2 percent at 375.69 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rallied 0.1 percent to 1,474.31 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent up at 7,157.81 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 eased 0.1 to 19,391.90 points.
Germany's DAX rose 0.1 percent at 11,600.41 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.05 percent higher at 5,288.16 points
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices eased, weighed down by the restart of Libya's biggest oilfield and on expectations for an increase in U.S. crude inventories. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.6 percent down at $65.17 per barrel by 1020 GMT, having hit a high of $67.11 on Friday, its highest since February 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.5 percent lower at $56.16 a barrel, after rising as high as $57.85 on Friday, its highest since the November 16.
Gold prices plunged, hovering towards a 5-week low touched in the previous session, amid a firmer dollar and optimism over a likely U.S.-China trade deal. Spot gold was 0.2 percent down at $1,283.70 per ounce by 1024 GMT, having touched a low of $1,282.74 in the previous session, its lowest since January 25. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,287.50 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries slipped during late European session ahead of the country’s ADP non-farm employment data for the month of February, scheduled to be released today by 13:15GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 1-1/2 basis points to 2.737 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields edged nearly 1 basis point higher at 3.098 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 1-1/2 basis points higher at 2.559 percent.
The German bunds slumped during European session after the Eurozone’s retail sales for the month of January beat market expectations, along with a rise in Germany’s services PMI for February. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, jumped 2 basis points to 0.180 percent, the yield on 30-year note surged 2-1/2 basis points to 0.824 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to trade at -0.497 percent.
The Japanese government bonds remained flat ahead of the country’s household spending data for the month of January, scheduled to be released today by 23:00GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, remained tad higher at 0.007 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year traded flat at 0.640 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year slumped nearly 14 basis points to -0.138 percent.
The Australian government bond yields during Asian trading session tracking a similar movement in the U.S. Treasuries even as trade talks between the United States and China are nearing an end towards a mutual agreement. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, slumped 3 basis points to 2.157 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond plunged 3-1/2 basis points to trade at 2.716 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly 2 basis points lower at 1.737 percent.
