Market Roundup
• French CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• French HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Nov) 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•EU Inflation (YoY) (Nov) 1.10%, 1.10% previous
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 1.8% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 1.8% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) -1.2%, -1.9% forecast, -2.2% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -1.5% previous
•China New Loans (Nov) 580.0B, 950.0B forecast, 500.0B previous
• China Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Nov) 7.7%, 7.9% forecast, 8.0% previous
•Chinese Total Social Financing (Nov) 2,340.0B, 2,800.0B forecast, 1,400.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Nov) -0.1% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 0.8% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q3) 78.9% forecast, 79.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct) 1.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Oct) 168.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 589 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded against dollar on Friday as dollar gave up its earlier gains. U.S. data on Thursday showed the job market is gradually cooling in line with expectations, while producer price inflation helped reinforce the market's current scenario of a Fed cut on Dec. 18, but a slower pace of reductions in 2025.On Thursday, the ECB reduced rates by 25 basis points and left the possibility of further easing open, as inflation nears its target and the economy remains sluggish. Several ECB officials are scheduled to speak later in the day. While the central bank disappointed doves hoping for a 50 basis point cut, it is expected to implement a quarter-point reduction at each of its policy meetings through the middle of next year. The euro pared earlier losses against the dollar and rose 0.42% to $1.0509.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0522(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0444(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0409(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against the dollar following data that showed an unexpected contraction in the British economy in October, potentially increasing traders' expectations for quicker rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. Official data showed that UK economic activity contracted by 0.1% in October, while a poll of economists had predicted a 0.1% increase following September's 0.1% decline. A separate report on employment on Dec. 9 showed demand for UK workers crashed in November, after the Labour government's first budget, in a sign of the impact of the tax increases for employers that it contains. Sterling initially fell as much as 0.3% after the numbers and was last down 0.08% at $1.2661. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2682(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2732 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2630(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2571(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded on Friday as dollar eased from earlier gains against Australian dollar. Dollar strengthened earlier after showed the job market is gradually cooling in line with expectations, while producer price inflation helped reinforce the market's current scenario of a Fed cut on Dec. Data released earlier this week showed that Australia's jobless rate fell to an eight-month low of 3.9% in November, defying forecasts of a little increase to 4.2%.Employment also increased by 35,600, exceeding the market projection of 25,000.As a result, markets now predict a 50% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February, down from 68% before the data The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.19% to $0.6355, down 0.3% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6385(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6406(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6356(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6326(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Friday as the yen weakened, with the Bank of Japan expected to pause on a rate hike next week. Sources familiar with the Bank’s thinking indicate that policymakers are inclined to keep interest rates steady as they focus on assessing overseas risks and gathering more insights into next year’s wage outlook.Such a decision would increase the likelihood of a rate hike in January or March, when more information on wage growth is expected. However, there is no consensus within the central bank, with some members still believing that Japan has met the conditions for a rate increase in December.Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.43 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.35(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.66(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks gained on Friday as investors awaited clarity on the pace of monetary easing in the eurozone next year. Concerns over slowing economic growth and the potential for a trade war weighed on sentiment.
At GMT 13:15 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.03percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined on Friday but remained on track to close the week higher, as focus shifted to the U.S. Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, where it is widely anticipated to announce its third interest rate cut of the year.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,671.39 per ounce at 1257 GMT, as the U.S. dollar hovered near its highest in more than two weeks. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,692.40.
Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday, set for their first weekly gain since late November, as new sanctions on Russia intensified supply concerns, although a surplus outlook continued to pressure the markets.
Brent crude futures increased by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.75 per barrel by 1308 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 32 cents, also 0.5%, reaching $70.34.
