Market Roundup
• Swiss May Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.4% forecast,2.3% previous
• Swiss May Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.3%,2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•German Apr Factory Orders (MoM) -0.2%,0.6% forecast,-0.4% previous
•French May IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 43.4, 41.5 previous
•German May IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 38.5, 37.5 previous
•UK May Construction PMI 54.7,52.5 forecast,53.0 previous
•French 15-Year OAT Auction 3.21%, 3.09% previous
• French Car Registration (YoY)-2.9%, 10.9% previous
• EU Apr Retail Sales (MoM) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 EU Jun ECB Interest Rate Decision 4.25% forecast,4.50% previous
•12:15 EU Jun Deposit Facility Rate 3.75% forecast,4.00% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3% forecast, 3.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Trade Balance -1.20B forecast, -2.28B previous
•12:30 US Imports 327.00B previous
•12:30 US Exports 257.60B previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 222.50K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,790K forecast,1,791K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast, 219K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Exports 62.56B previous
•12:30 US Apr Trade Balance -76.20B forecast,-69.40B previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) 4.7% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:00 Canada May Ivey PMI n.s.a 65.7 previous
•14:00 Canada May Ivey PMI 65.2 forecast,63.0 previous
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.8% forecast,1.8% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•14:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday but gains were limited ahead of European Central Bank's rate decision. The ECB remains the day's focus, and the euro gained 0.11% to $1.0882, sitting just shy of a two-and-a-half month top of $1.0916 hit earlier in the week.A cut at Thursday's meeting has long been expected, and the euro's recent strengthening against the dollar has come as investors reduced their expectations of significant further rate cuts this year, while, this week, slightly increasing bets on monetary easing in the U.S.Markets are currently pricing around 63 basis points of ECB rate cuts this year, implying a 25 bp cut at Thursday's meeting, and one or maybe two more such cuts by year end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0919(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0940(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0870(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0848(50% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined versus the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited a widely expected rate cut by the European Central Bank . Investors awaited the ECB's monetary policy decision, due at 1215 GMT. Remarks from the central bank's president, Christine Lagarde, will be scrutinized for clues on the interest rate trajectory. The Bank of England, scheduled to convene in two weeks, is poised to align closely with the ECB's rate action. With European Parliament elections kicking off in the background, European government bond yields were steady ahead of the ECB decision. Sterling was up a whisker versus the dollar at $1.2795. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2817 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2856(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2734(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2668(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as robust U.S. economic data fuelled skepticism over Federal Reserve rate cuts. Improved U.S. consumer confidence and a positive labour market outlook led investors to scale back expectations for U.S. rate cuts. Furthermore, minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting indicated that policymakers expect inflation to take longer than previously thought to reach the central bank's 2% target.Markets are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls data on Friday for further clues. The Fed will likely cut its key interest rate in September and once more this year, according to a majority of forecasters in a Reuters poll.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8952 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9021(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8897 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8824 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against yen on Thursday as investors digested remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that it would be appropriate to reduce the central bank's bond buying as it moves toward an exit from massive monetary stimulus.His comments come ahead of the BOJ's two-day monetary policy meeting next week . The Japanese currency had a brief rally earlier in the week as investors unwound positions in yen-funded carry trades . Investor attention will soon turn to the U.S. nonfarm payroll report for May on Friday, with a Reuters poll of economists expecting it to have risen by 185,000 jobs. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.02(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.93(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, boosted by technology stocks as they hit a near 24-year high, while investors geared up for the European Central Bank's key interest rate decision later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.71 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.54percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a two-week high on Thursday on signs of a cooling U.S. labour market, strengthening a case for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while investors positioned for U.S. non-farm payrolls data.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,359.80 per ounce as of 1102 GMT, after hitting a two-week high. It rose 1% on Wednesday.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,378.80.
Oil prices were stable on Thursday, as support from growing expectations of an interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September offset higher U.S. inventories and OPEC+ plans to gradually increase supply.
Brent crude futures were up 25 cents or 0.3% at $78.66 a barrel by 1005 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 31 cents or 0.4% at $74.38.
