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Europe Roundup: Euro eases against dollar after German ZEW economic sentiment weakens in June, European rises to new high, Gold slips, Oil prices fall, but the outlook remains optimistic-June 8th,2021

Market Roundup

• German Apr Industrial Production (MoM)  -1.0%,  0.5%forecast, 2.5% previous

• French Apr Trade Balance  -6.2B, -6.1B previous

•French Apr Imports  46.9B, 46.1B previous

•French Apr Exports  40.6B, 40.0B previous

•Italian Apr Retail Sales (YoY)  30.4%, 22.9% previous

•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) -0.3%,-0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous

•EU ZEW Jun Economic Sentiment  81.3, 84.0 previous

•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -0.3%,-0.6% forecast, -0.6% previous

•EU GDP (YoY) (Q1) -1.3%,-1.8%               forecast, -1.8%  previous

•German Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment 79.8, 86.0 forecast, 84.4 previous

•German Jun ZEW Current Conditions  -9.1, -27.8 forecast, -40.1 previous

•US May NFIB Small Business Optimism  99.6, 99.8 previous

Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)

•12:30 US Imports 274.48B previous

•12:30 US Exports 200.03B previous

•12:30 US Apr Trade Balance  -69.00B, -74.40B previous

•12:30 US Apr Exports  50.62B previous

•12:30 US Apr Trade Balance  -0.70B forecast, -1.14B previous

•12:30 US Apr Imports  51.76B previous

•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 13.0% previous

•14:00 US Apr JOLTs Job Openings  8.300M forecast, 8.123M previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events

Fx Beat 

EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Tuesday after data showed investor sentiment in Germany fell in June. The economic research institute ZEW said its survey on the economic sentiment of investors had fallen from 84.4 points in the previous month to 79.8 points. A poll had forecast an increase to 86, a separate ZEW indicator of current conditions rose to -9.1 points from -40.1 in the previous month, compared to a consensus forecast of -27.8 points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1212 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1258 (June 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2172 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2148(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound fell against a much stronger dollar on Tuesday with no major economic calendar data released, leaving investors focus on the UK government's imminent decision to fully reopen the economy. The British pound is the second-best G10 currency against the dollar this year, behind only the commodity-powered Canadian dollar, and has been fueled by betting on a faster reopening of the UK economy thanks to its vaccination program.By 11:30 GMT, sterling was 0.3% lower to the dollar at $1.4149.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4148(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4250(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4128 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4086(June 4th low).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders were cautious before the release of US inflation data this week to seek further guidance on the Fed’s tapering timeline. After last week’s payroll report suppressed expectations of the Fed’s recent tightening of monetary policy, investors are paying close attention to the US inflation data release on Thursday. At 12:00 GMT, the dollar was 0.13 percent lower versus the Swiss franc at 0.8961 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8986 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9027 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8941 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8900 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday but was subdued as investors continue to gauge inflationary pressures ahead of a policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors are waiting for the CPI report to be released later this week to assess the Fed’s next move before the policy decision is announced next week. It is now expected that the Fed will propose an asset reduction plan at the end of 2021, and the actual process will begin in early 2022.At (GMT 12:10), the dollar was last up  0.16 % at 109.40 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.55(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.q3 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 108.67  (61.8%fib).

Equities Recap

Boosted by travel and real estate stocks, European stocks hit new highs on Tuesday, but weak German industrial production data and doubts about the lifting of restrictions in the United Kingdom later this month limited gains.

At (GMT 12:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.60 percent, Germany's Dax was up  by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC  was last up by 0.35 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold fell on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar dampened interest in gold bullion,as investors waited for U.S. inflation data to understand when the Fed will begin to cut its monetary stimulus measures.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,893.51 per ounce by 1048 GMT, while U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,896.30.

Oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday, due to profit-taking and a strong US dollar,but general optimism about a strong recovery limited losses.

Brent crude was down 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.14 a barrel by 0921 GMT, after declining 0.6% on Monday. U.S. oil was off by 32 cents, or 0.5%, at $68.91 a barrel, having dropped by 0.6% in the previous session.

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