Market Roundup
• EU CPI (YoY) (Dec): 1.9%, 2.0% forecast, 2.1% previous.
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous.
• EU CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, -0.3% previous.
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous.
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Dec): 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous.
• EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Dec): 1.9%, 2.1% previous.
• EU CPI n.s.a (Dec): 129.54, 129.56 forecast, 129.30 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec): -0.1% previous.
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.9% previous.
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Dec): -0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.8% forecast, previous..
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous.
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Monday as dollar weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap extra tariffs on eight European nations until the U.S. was allowed to buy Greenland. Trump said he would impose additional 10% import levies from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, rising to 25% on June 1 if no deal was reached.Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail, and France proposed responding with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.The EU's options include a package of its own tariffs on 93 billion euros ($108 billion) of U.S. imports that was suspended for six months in early August, and measures under an Anti-Coercion Instrument that could hit U.S. services trade or investments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1649(Jan 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1689(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1559(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1496(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Monday as markets looked to UK economic data points due throughout the week, while U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats against Europe over Greenland raised geopolitical concerns..Trump over the weekend said an additional 10% tariff would be applied to goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain from February 1 until the United States can buy Greenland.UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday called for a calm discussion on Greenland, while European allies scrambled to avert extra duties and prepared retaliatory measures. The dollar slipped broadly on Monday as investors moved money away from U.S. assets. The pound was up 0.16% to $1.3402. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3331(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Monday as the dollar slipped amid investor concerns over President Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe. The dollar weakened after President Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the UK. The Australian dollar was also supported by rising expectations of higher interest rates from the RBA.On the data front, Australia’s Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge rose 1% m/m in December 2025, the fastest pace since December 2023, accelerating sharply from 0.3% in the prior two months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6729(Jan 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6758(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6690(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6672(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered some ground as geopolitical tensions over greenland kept investors cautions .President Trump announced fresh tariffs on eight European countries, imposing an initial 10% levy with plans to raise it to 25% from June 1, reigniting concerns over transatlantic trade relations.The European Union confirmed that previously suspended retaliatory tariffs will be reinstated from February 6, signaling a firmer trade response stance, although EU diplomats indicated there are currently no plans to introduce countermeasures specifically tied to the Greenland issue. Data on Japanese machinery orders in November showed an 11% month-on-month decline, more than double what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and, while no rate hike is expected this time, policymakers could flag a tightening as soon as April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 157.11 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday after Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland, reviving trade tensions and undermining confidence in earlier agreements.
At (GMT 12:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.01 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices jumped to new record peaks, while oil dipped on concerns about what a possible trade war between the U.S. and Europe could mean for global growth and demand.
Gold again proved to be a safe harbour, as high as $4,689 an ounce while silver climbed to $94.08, both hitting new record highs.
Oil prices slipped on Monday as easing unrest in Iran lowered supply disruption risks, while markets also monitored the escalating Greenland standoff.
Brent crude was trading at $63.79 a barrel at 1239 GMT, down 40 cents or 0.62%.U.S. West Texas Intermediate for February fell 44 cents, or around 0.74%, to $59.00 a barrel.
