- European Official- Good chance next week will bring agreement with Greece acceptable to creditors.
- USD/JPY recovers to 123.81 after biggest drop in 2 months on Wednesday.
- EUR/USD weighed down to 1.1241 from 1.1387 Wednesday peak.
- GBP slips after Carney offers no rate hike clues.
- GBP/USD down to 1.5430 from 1.5554 Wednesday.
- NZD/USD sinks to 5 year low at 0.6998 on rate cut.
- RBNZ cuts rates 25 BP and leaves the door open to another cut.
- BOJ Kuroda was not trying to send warning to yen bears.
- Weidmann- France's public finances in bad shape, country needs to act as role model.
- China Central Bank will encourage foreign central banks to include Yuan assets in the FX reserves.
- China Premier Li- China economy faces relatively large downward pressure.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Retail Sales (May) (consensus +0.9% m/m, previous +0.0% m/m).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Ex Autos Retail Sales (May) (consensus +0.6% m/m, previous +0.1% m/m).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Control Group Retail Sales (May) (consensus +0.4% m/m, previous +0.0% m/m).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Jobless Claims (Jun 6 week) (consensus 275k, previous 276k).
- (0800 ET/1200 MGT) US Continued Claims (May 30 wk) (consensus 2.200 mn, previous 2.196 mn).
- (0830 ET/1230 MGT) Import Prices (May) (consensus +0.7% m/m, previous -0.3% m/m).
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Export Prices (May) (consensus 0.0% m/m, previous -0.7% m/m).
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Business Inventories (April) consensus +0.2% m/m, previous +0.1% m/m).
Key Events Ahead
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) BoC financial system review release/15:15 Gov Poloz press conference.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) Buba Dombret speech in Prague/Buba Thiele speech in Garbsen, Germany.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) Flow of Funds (Q1).
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Buba VP Buch speech at Munich symposium.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1280 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1328 and low at 1.1239 levels. Today France CPI data came with negative numbers and Nonfarm employment data released with positive numbers. The EUR witnessed a minor spike in demand mainly on account of the uptick seen in the German 10-year yield. However, the bid tone seems to have exhausted at a high of 1.1318 as the US-German 10-year yield spread remains unchanged on the day at 147 basis points. Initial support is seen around 1.1221 and resistance is seen around 1.1378 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1230-70 (2BL), 1.1350-60 (1.1BL), 1.1375 (543M), 1.1400 (1.2BL).
USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.79 levels. It has made intraday low at 122.56 and currently trading at 123.63 levels. Today in Asian hours Japan released BSI manufacturing Index with negative numbers. Now market will eye on USD retail sales data due later in a day for further momentum. Near term resistance is seen at 123.66 and support is seen at 122.45 levels. Option expiries are at 122.00 (455M), 123.00 (830M), 124.00 (450M).
GBP/USD is supported below $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5528 and low at 1.5429 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5464 levels. Sterling fell from near 3-week high vs the dollar after the BoE Governor's speech offered no hints to investors as to when interest rates might be lifted from their historic lows. Initial support is seen at 1.5440 and resistance is seen around 1.5535 levels. Option expiries are at 1.5200 (520M), 1.5400 (329M), 1.5600 (201M).
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9352 levels and made intraday low at 0.9297 and high at 0.9378 levels. Today was data free session for Switzerland; market will eye on US retail sales data release due later in a day. Near term support is seen at 0.9242 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9372 levels.
AUD/USD is supported above 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7734 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7791 levels and low at 0.7696 levels. Pair spiked all the way to 0.7790s after a much better-than-expected Australian jobs report. Australia's employment figures came much better-than-expected - around 15 expected -, tripling estimates, with the total employment change at 42k, 27.3k being part-time jobs and 14.7k full-time positions. The jobless rate was also reduced to 6% vs 6.1% prior (revised from 6.2%), while the participation rate was unchanged at 64.7% after a revision last month from 64.8%. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7811 levels.
NZDUSD is supported around 0.7000 levels and currently trading at 0.7009. It has made intraday high at 0.7190 and low at 0.6996 levels. The Kiwi slumped 2.5 percent against the U.S. dollar, touching a 5-year low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised by cutting interest rates and signalling the chance of further easing. The kiwi was on track for its biggest daily loss in four years, dropping to $0.6998 in early London trade. Initial support is seen at 0.6965 and resistance is seen around 0.7055 levels. Option expiry is at 0.7200 (376M).
