• Market Round Up
  
  
• ECB VP Constancio - ECB unconcerned about finding enough bonds for QE.
  
  
• Japan GPIF - Economy recovering, direct stock investments unlikely, in process of rebalancing portfolio, bought more stocks than expected in Q4, portfolioY23.9 bln, slashed JGBs, end-Dec Y137 trln assets - Nikkei, Reuters, Kyodo.
  
  
• Return to zero rates isn't part of Fed's expected outcome, rates seen nearlytwice as high as priced in by futures - J. Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal.
  
  
• FOMC ViceChair Fischer - No need to telegraph every Fed action, not for hikingat every meeting, Fed getting closer to hiking rates on data.
  
  
• Japan Q4 corp CAPEX +2.8% y/y, recurring profits +11.6%, sales +2.4%.
  
  
• Japan Feb mfg PMI - final 51.6, flash 51.5, Jan final 52.2.
  
  
• China PBOC cuts lending rate 25 bps to 5.35%, benchmark savings rate to 2.5%, reflects growth and deflation concerns.
  
  
• China growth expected to slow to 7% in Q1 - State Information Center.
  
  
• China Feb official mfg PMI 49.9, 49.7 eyed, non-mfg PMI 53.9, Jan 53.7.
  
  
• China Feb HSBC mfg PMI - final 50.7, 7-month high, flash 50.1, Jan 49.7.
  
  
• Australia Feb PMI -3.6 points to 45.4, weak demand cited.
  
  
• Australia Feb TD/MI inflation index unch m/m, +1.3% y/y, lowest since '09,trimmed mean index +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y.
  
  
• Australia Q4 business inventories -0.8% q/q, co profits +0.2% q/q, +0.1%, +0.3% expected.
  
  
• Australia Jan new home sales +1.8%, multi-unit +9.9%, detached homes +0.1%.
  
  
• NZ Q4 terms of trade index -1.9% q/q, export volumes +1.5%, import prices+0.2%, export prices -1.8%, -3.0%, +1.5%, -0.4% and -3.1% expected.

Economic Data Ahead  

• 0700 GMT UK Feb Nationwide HPI, +0.3% m/m, +6.1% y/y expected; previous +0.3%, +6.8%.
  
  
• 0730 GMT Sweden Feb PMI - Manufactuirng, 55.0 expected; previous  55.1.
  
  
• 0800 GMT Norway Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 51.3 expected; previous  51.9.
  
  
• 0815 GMT Spain Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 55.1 expected; previous  54.7.
  
  
• 0830 GMT Swiss Feb PMI - manufacturing, 47.0 expected; previous  48.2.
  
  
• 0845 GMT Italy Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 50.3 expected; previous  49.9.
  
  
• 0850 France Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 47.7 expected; flash 47.7.
  
  
• 0855 GMT Germany Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 50.9 expected; flash 50.9.
  
  
• 0900 GMT Norway Jan credit indicator, +5.5% y/y expected; previous +5.4%.
  
  
• 0900 GMT EZ Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 51.1 expected; flash 51.1.
  
  
• 0900 GMT Italy Jan unemployment, 12.9% expected; previous 12.9%.
  
  
• 0930 GMT UK Jan mortgage approvals, 61k expected; previous 60.28k.
  
  
• 0930 GMT UK Jan mortgage lending, GBP1.7 bln expected; previous bln.
  
  
• 0930 GMT UK Jan consumer credit, GBP900 mln expected; last GBP580 mln.
  
  
• 0930 GMT UK Jan money supply M4; previous +0.1%.
  
  
• 0930 GMT UK Feb PMI - Manufacturing, 53.4 expected; previous 53.0.
  
  
• 1000 GMT EZ Jan unemployment, 11.4% expected; previous 11.4%.
  
  
• 1000 GMT EZ Feb inflation - flash, -0.4% y/y expected; previous -0.6%, +0.5% ex-f/e.
  
  
• 1330 GMT US Jan personal income, +0.4% m/m; previous +0.3%.
  
  
• 1330 GMT US Jan personal consumption, -0.1% m/m sa; previous -0.3% sa, -0.1% nsa.
  
  
• 1330 GMT US Jan core PCE index, +0.1% m/m; last unchanged m/m, +1.3% y/y.
  
  
• 1400 GMT Belgium Q4  GDP - revised; preliminary +0.1% q/q.
  
  
• 1445 GMT US Feb Markit Manufacturing PMI - final; prelim 54.3.
  
  
• 1500 GMT US Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI, 53.1 expected; last 53.5.
  
  
• 1500 GMT US Jan construction spending, +0.3% m/m expected; last +0.4%.
  
  
• 1800 US Jan Dallas Fed PCE index; last +0.7%.

Key Events Ahead 

• 1200 GMT Norges Bank Watch '15 presented, DepGov Nicolaisen in attendance.

FX Beat

• EUR/USD is absorbing losses after falling sharply to threaten the January swing low versus the USD. Intraday bias remains cautiously on the downside for 1.1096. Near-term support is seen at 1.1185, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis uncovering the 38.2% level at 1.0970. Overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern, on the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook is likely to stay bearish.
  
  
• USD/JPY fell to a two-week low against the dollar after PBOC cut rates, encouraging speculation stocks in Asia will rise and moist demand for haven assets. "China's rate cuts improved risk sentiment while data showing Japanese corporate profits rose significantly supported buying Japanese equities, leading to the dollar's gain against the yen," said Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp in a note on Monday. The intraday bias remains neutral and the pair is staying in the sideway consolidation pattern from 121.84. On the downside, below 188.22 will bring another fall, but the decline attempt should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47 and rebound. Above 120.46 will bring resistance of 121.84. But break of 121.84 is needed to confirm larger up trend resumption. OCBC Bank expects the pair to maintain its upside movement in the near-term, anticipating a break above 120.00 to lead to pair towards 120.20 and then 120.50.
  
  
• AUD/USD fell on Monday after mixed local economic data and concerns about China's slowing economy reinforced the case for more interest rate cuts, pulling the New Zealand dollar lower.  The Australian dollar dropped to $0.7780, after trading as high as $0.7850 in the early trade. Resistance was seen at last week's peak of $0.7914, while support was found at $0.7740. "If China is going bad, it's not good for Australia, and it's even worse for New Zealand," said ASB bank on Monday. Markets now price in 56 pct chance of RBA's 25 bps cut to 2.0 pct. The intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, price actions from 0.7625 are seen as consolidation pattern, and a break of 0.7739 minor support will indicate that such consolidation is possibly completed. In such case, intraday bias is turned to the downside for 0.7625 first. Break will target next long term fibonacci level at 0.7182. Above 0.7912 will extend the recovery but in that case, upside should be limited by 0.8032 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption.
  
  
• NZD/USD dropped to $0.7546, from $0.7600 hit in the early trade with heavy offers seen around $0.7600-$0.7650. Support was seen at $0.7569, the 50 percent retracement of the July-Februrary sell-off. A break could push the pair down to trendline support at $0.7504.   Against the Aussie, the kiwi edged up to NZ$1.0295, a whisker away from a record high around NZ$1.0290. 
  
  
• USD/CHF traders still favour the case the recent rebound is merely a correction, they would expect strong resistance from 0.9553 to limit upside and bring near term reversal. Below 0.9370 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained trading above 0.9553 will dampen this case and would pave the way for a test on 1.0239 resistance.
  
  
• USD/CNH fell to its lowest level since October 2012 and to within a very slight breadth of the lower limit of its daily trading range on Monday after the PBOC slashed its benchmark interest rate. Traders see the yuan to dip further in the coming months due to a sluggish economy, as the central bank is expected to ease monetary policy further as inflation remains lows. "The concern over the lower headline inflation profile amidst high real interest rate is precisely one of the reasons why we think the CNY may need to weaken further," said Credit Suisse in a note. PBOC set the midpoint at 6.1513 per dollar prior to market open, weaker than the previous fix 6.1475.  The spot market started at 6.2730 per dollar, 34 pips weaker than the previous close and 1.98 percent weaker than the midpoint. The yuan traded in a very tight range between 6.2733 and 6.2727 in morning trade. The 5, 10 & 20 dma's edged higher - positive setup, the downside failure last week above 6.2600 leaves another higher low in 2015.