The initial reading for January euro area annual inflation is forecast to see a second successive monthly rise. While oil prices fell in January, they dropped by even more at the same point last year. That should allow the headline rate to move up to 0.4% (from 0.2%), still well below the ECB's inflation target.
The core rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.9%. Such an outturn is unlikely to reduce the odds of the ECB introducing further stimulus measures potentially as early as its next meeting in March.
"The ECB would have been expecting an even larger pickup in January inflation before the latest oil price fall. It will also be aware that inflation could start to decline once again over the next few months unless the oil price rebounds", notes Lloyds Bank.


ANZ and Westpac Forecast Two RBA Rate Hikes in March and May 2026
Paraguay Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% Amid Slowing Growth
Bank of Japan Faces Rate Uncertainty Amid Middle East Oil Shock
U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Iran Reviews U.S. Ceasefire Proposal
RBA Set to Hike Rates Again Amid Inflation Surge and Global Uncertainty
Oil Prices Climb as Iran Reviews U.S. Peace Proposal Amid Middle East Tensions
Global Central Banks Hold Rates Amid Iran War-Driven Energy Price Surge
Gold Prices Climb as Middle East Ceasefire Talks Stir Market Optimism




