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Economic weakness in Chile persisted during the month of July; however, consumer demand is improving or at least not weakening further.
The IMACEC economic activity index increased 0.5 percent in July compared to a year earlier, versus 0.1 percent in June. The mining economy was down 3.1 percent on a year-earlier basis, while the non-mining sector increased 0.8 percent, year over year. However, weakness in the mining sector seems to be fading, as the mining sector grew 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to June, while the non-mining sector decreased 0.2 percent.
Real retail sales were up 4.6 percent in July compared to an increase of 1.0 percent for the year ending in June. Real retail sales are up 3.7 percent year to date through July. The strength in real retail sales was also observed on a seasonally adjusted basis as this index increased 0.8 percent in July compared to June.
However, the statistical institute noted that this increase in real retail sales occurred at the same time when real salaries declined in June, perhaps prompting the weakness observed in real retail sales during that month. Although the result for real wages in July has not been released, the strong increase in real retail sales could be pointing to a recovery in real wages during July, Wells Fargo Securities reported.
Further, industrial production for July was down 1.8 percent, year over year. This was an improvement from an upwardly revised collapse of 3.6 percent during the 12 months ending in June. Within the industrial sector, one of the biggest culprits for July’s industrial production weakness was a 4.4 percent decline in manufacturing production compared to an upwardly revised drop of 2.2 percent during the 12 months ending in June. This was the largest year-over-year decline for manufacturing production.
However, public utilities production was positive in July posting an increase of 0.7 percent on a year-earlier basis, while reporting no change versus the previous month.
