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EUR/HUF likely to trend lower in long term as Hungary’s fundamentals remain robust

In Hungary, the gross government debt (% GDP) is seen declining. NBH estimates it to reach 75.6% and 73.9% by YE 2015 and 2016, respectively from 76.9% in 2014. 

As per AKK, the share of FX in public debt stands at 32%, which is an improvement from 38% as of Nov and is expected to reach 27% 2016-YE. 

The net external debt (% GDP) has also dropped, at 31% (as of Q2), reducing the economy's vulnerability to external risks.

"We expect EUR/HUF to trend lower as Hungary's fundamentals remain robust. With Euro area's recovery showing positive signs, this should support Hungary' exports and thereby growth", says RBC Capital Markets. 

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