ETH: Bullish Fundamentals Meet Short-Term ETF Pullback

Ethereum exchange balances have plummeted to a nine-year low, reaching as low as 14.88 million ETH (or 18.3–18.8 million ETH by other estimates), a level not seen since 2016. This significant drop is attributed to sustained outflows, with investors moving approximately 470,000 ETH (worth $211 million) off centralized exchanges in the past week alone, primarily for self-custody in private wallets, staking, or participation in DeFi protocols. This behavior signals reduced sell-side pressure, as a lower supply of ETH on exchanges typically leads to tighter liquidity and potential upward price pressure if demand remains constant or increases. The underlying reasons for this trend include growing institutional accumulation, increased interest in staking and DeFi, and improved regulatory clarity encouraging long-term holding. Analysts view this structural shift as a bullish signal, potentially setting the stage for new all-time highs for ETH in 2025, with immediate resistance levels noted between $4,749 and $5,000, reinforcing optimism for Ethereum's medium to long-term prospects. 

Following an amazing eight-day streak of $3.7 billion in inflows, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had a significant reversal on August 15, 2025, reporting net outflows of $59.3 million. This change was mostly caused by large withdrawals from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) at $101.7 million and the Fidelity Ethereum ETF (FETH) at $272.2 million, plus smaller withdrawals from other funds like ETHW, CETH, and ETH. By contrast, BlackRock's ETHA went against the trend with a significant net inflow of $338.1 million, therefore emphasizing a disparity in investor opinion across assets. These outflows, maybe resulting from profit-taking, price consolidation, or institutional capital rotation as Ethereum's price froze near its all-time high of $4,800, highlight the growing impact of ETF flows on ETH price changes and general market mood, therefore indicating a near-term correction notwithstanding the more widespread positive August trend.

ETHUSD pared some of its gains due top profit booking. It hits an intraday low of $4233 and is currently trading around $4247. Overall trend remains bullish  as long as support $3500 remains intact. Watch out for $4500, any break above targets $4770/$5000/$6000. A robust bullish trend will only materialize above $5000.

Immediate support is around $4200. Any violation below will drag the price down to $3950/$3700/$3550/$3500/$3380/$3200/$3000. A breach below $3000 could see Ethereum plummet to $2770/$2500.

It is good to buy on dips around $4200 with SL around $3900 for a TP of $5000/$6000.