EM Asian currencies likely to prop up as U.S. and China remain on track to reach a partial trade deal, says Scotiabank

The emerging market Asian currencies, including the yuan are expected to prop up for the rest of the year as the United States and China remain on track to reach a partial trade deal, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.

China’s central bank has stepped up efforts to spur economic growth. However, more monetary easing measures are needed to further boost the nation’s stabilizing credit impulse that is an important leading indicator of economic growth.

Aggregate financing, which measures the country’s overall credit to the real economy and includes bank loans, bond issuance, trust loans and bill financing, rose to CNY2.27 trillion in September from a revised CNY2.02 trillion in August, partly due to the central bank’s adjustment of aggregated financing with some asset-backed securities included, the report added.

In the meantime, China’s broad M2 money supply increased 8.4 percent y/y last month following an 8.2 percent rise in August. The yuan is now facing some appreciation pressure as USD/CNY spot closed above the same day’s fixing on Thursday, while remaining susceptible to the US-China bilateral relations.

"In our view, the PBoC will step in to defend the yuan exchange rate if necessary, although it has been setting USD/CNY more or less in line with market expectations week-to-date," Scotiabank further commented in the report.