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Gold prices fell sharply after Donald Trump took the lead in the U.S. elections. It dropped to a low of $2,701 and is currently trading around $2,727.
As of the latest updates in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump is in the lead with 267 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris has 214. Trump's victories in important swing states like Georgia and North Carolina have boosted his total. He is also projected to win Pennsylvania, bringing him closer to the 270 votes needed for victory. Meanwhile, Harris is strong in states like California and New York but is struggling in key battlegrounds. The final results are still pending, and both candidates are watching closely as mail-in ballots are being counted.
Expectations of Trump's economic policies, like potential tax cuts and lower government spending, may boost the dollar. A stronger dollar usually leads to lower gold prices, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. This relationship is causing gold to decrease in value as the dollar gains strength.
According to CME Fed watch tool, probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut increased to 99.60% from 95.20% a week ago.
Markets eye US Fed monetary policy for further movement.
Technical Overview:
Gold remains below both short-term and long-term moving averages on the 4-hour chart. The immediate support level is around $2,700; a fall below this could lead to targets of $2,685, $2,670, $2,660, or even $2,638. A bearish trend would only be confirmed if prices drop below $2,470. On the upper side, minor resistance is found at $2,740, and breaking past this barrier could push prices up to $2760/ $2,775/$2800.
Current market indicators present bearish: the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicates a bearish trend, while the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) suggests a bearish outlook.
Trading Strategy:
Consider making purchases on dips around the 2,700 mark, with a stop-loss positioned around 2,670 and a target price of $2,759.
