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Asian currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week. The Japanese yen remained close to a seven-month high as traders also prepared for tighter Bank of Japan policy.
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.2% to around 99.35 after snapping two consecutive weeks of modest losses. EUR/USD declined 0.3% to 1.1564, while GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3501.
Markets are now pricing an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its September 16 meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Expectations shifted after U.S. consumer inflation accelerated in August, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.
Higher Fed rate expectations also lifted Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield traded near 4.97%, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield remained above 4.6%.
Central bank decisions will dominate global markets this week, with the Fed announcing its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the BOJ on Friday.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 154.03. Despite Monday's move, the yen remained near last week's 152.89 level, its strongest since February. Japan's currency has gained roughly 4% this month as markets anticipate another 25-basis-point BOJ rate hike and potential repatriation of overseas investments.
Energy prices are adding another layer of uncertainty. Brent crude climbed nearly 3% to $107.60 per barrel following fresh Middle East attacks, reinforcing concerns that elevated energy costs could keep global inflation higher for longer.
Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific currency markets, NZD/USD fell 0.5% to $0.5782, while USD/AUD rose 0.4% to 1.3991. The Chinese yuan was broadly stable, with USD/CNH at 6.7080 and USD/CNY around 6.7073.
USD/KRW gained 0.25% to 1,344.86, while USD/SGD advanced 0.16% to 1.2691. Indian financial markets were closed for a public holiday.
With the Fed, BOE and BOJ all setting monetary policy this week, currency traders will closely watch rate guidance and signs that renewed energy inflation could force central banks to maintain restrictive policies for longer.
