Daily Economic Outlook: Lloyds Bank

The third estimate of Q4 UK GDP is today's focus. As of the 2nd estimate, GDP is gauged to have expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. However, revisions to history in subsequently-released data for industrial production and construction output could prove sufficient to tip this estimate to 0.6% on the rounding. 

"As the expenditure breakdown so far suggests a puzzlingly-weak 0.5% gain in household consumption, we see consumption as a likely candidate for upward revision. Nevertheless, with the release likely to be viewed as old news, and with the focus increasingly on the outlook for growth in 2015, the Lloyds Business Confidence Barometer for March will offer some key insights into the pace of activity in Q1," says Lloyds Bank.  

In the US, surveys are expected to paint a mixed picture of health. The Chicago PMI fell below 50 in February, likely a result of the poor weather and West Coast port strikes. While some of these factors likely impacted on activity in March, According to Lloyds Bank some lessening in these influence, which should see confidence recover back above the 50 level and they forecast a rise to 52.5. At the consumer level, the moderation in confidence in February is likely to have continued in March due to the recent firming in gasoline prices and reflecting the trends from the Uni. of Michigan consumer sentiment index and therefore a drop to 95.0 is expected from 96.4. 

Annual German inflation's return to positive territory in March may have helped ease concerns about the risk of sustained deflation in the euro area. Today's 'flash' estimate of euro area wide inflation is likely to reiterate this message, with the headline rate expected to push up towards zero.