Coca-Cola Eyes Cane Sugar Shift Amid Health Push, Faces Supply and Cost Hurdles

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) may switch from high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) to cane sugar in U.S. beverages following discussions with President Donald Trump and pressure from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s “Make America Healthy Again” campaign. Advocates argue cane sugar is a healthier alternative to HFCS, though both are considered nutritionally limited.

Coca-Cola already sells cane sugar versions abroad and in select U.S. stores under “Mexican Coke.” The company said more product updates are coming. Rival PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) also signaled openness to using cane sugar if consumer demand rises.

However, shifting to cane sugar would require major supply chain overhauls, new labeling, and significant cost increases. Industry analysts estimate the switch could cost Coca-Cola over $1 billion due to price gaps and limited domestic sugar production.

The U.S. uses about 400 million bushels of corn annually for HFCS, roughly 2.5% of total corn output. Replacing this with cane sugar would likely slash corn demand, cutting farm income by an estimated $5.1 billion and pushing corn prices down by up to 34 cents per bushel, according to the Corn Refiners Association.

Producers like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Ingredion (NYSE:INGR), key suppliers of HFCS, saw stock declines on the news. ADM ships 4–4.5 billion pounds of HFCS annually, accounting for 6–7% of projected 2026 earnings.

The U.S. currently produces only 3.6 million metric tons of cane sugar annually—insufficient to meet new demand—while Trump’s 50% import tariff on Brazilian sugar, the world’s largest source, could worsen supply issues.

Analysts warn reformulating Coke’s recipe would disrupt bottling operations and raise prices, a burden unlikely to be absorbed by manufacturers or welcomed by cost-conscious consumers.