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Chinese yuan likely to advance in coming weeks, remain susceptible to developments in US-China trade talks: Scotiabank

The Chinese yuan is still expected to advance in the coming weeks, while remaining susceptible to developments in the ongoing US-China trade talks, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.

Although remarks from US President Donald Trump may dent market sentiment a bit for now, it is believed the two nations will finally agree to an interim phase-1 trade deal by the end of this calendar year.

China’s CPI inflation rose to a nearly eight-year high of 3.8 percent y/y in October, largely driven by pork prices that soared 101.3 percent from a year earlier and contributed 2.43 percentage points to the October CPI growth.

The African swine fever’s impact on consumer prices is expected to increase in the months ahead, but inflation expectations will remain steady in our opinion. In the meanwhile, the nation’s factory deflation deepened further last month in line with falling manufacturing PMI, casting a shadow on the Chinese economy.

China’s authorities will step up efforts to spur economic growth, while averting aggressive monetary easing amid increasing CPI inflation. As we know, the PBoC extended CNY400 billion of 1-year MLF loans and unexpectedly lowered the rate by 5 bp to 3.25 percent last Tuesday, with CNY403.5 billion worth of MLF loans expiring on the same day, the report added.

It has raised market expectations for a 5 bp reduction in the 1-year LPR that is due to be reset on November 20, without spurring concerns over the yuan depreciation.

By Debarati Bir
  • Market Data
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