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Chinese domestic demand likely stabilized in March, GDP growth to have eased slightly in Q1 2019

Chinese domestic demand is likely to have stabilized slightly in March as implied by early indicators. The NBS Manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.2, the first expansionary reading since November 2018. According to a DBS Bank research report, retail sales and industrial production growth are likely to have rebounded to 8.6 percent and 6 percent year-on-year in March, respectively, owing to an accommodative monetary policy.

On the external front, exports rebounded back to double-digit growth 14.2 percent from -5.7 percent in January-February period, while imports fell further to -7.6 percent.

“The improved trade balance in Mar should help to stabilize the economy. We, therefore, expect the GDP growth will only edge down to 6.3 percent in 1Q19 from 6.4 percent in 4Q18 given the relative improvement seen after the Chinese New Year”, added DBS Bank.

At 19:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Chinese Yuan was neutral at 23.185 while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was slightly bullish at 60.0167 more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

By Aditi Awati
  • Market Data
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