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After projecting weakness through trade balance data (exports down -6.9% y/y, imports down -18.8% y/y) and inflation (CPI down -0.3% m/m in October, PPI down -5.9% y/y), next series of Chinese data released today painted a mixed picture.
- In October, retail sales grew 11% y/y, up for third consecutive month in October and reached highest level since December last year and up 0.9% from bottom made in May.
- Urban investment growth dropped to 10.2% in October from 10.3% in September, but that's marginal compared to 0.9% drop in last two months.
- No good news from industries. Industrial output growth dropped to 5.6% y/y in October, lowest level since April this year.
Looking at the data points, it can be inferred that any rebound in Chinese economy, even if the currency gets included in IMF's SDR basket, is too early a call. Though fear of hard landing has temporarily subsided, it would keep revisiting if data fail to improve.
