China's export growth likely to fall back sharply this month

China's export growth surged last month, from -3.2% y/y to +48.3%. (Data released on Monday.)  

Imports remained weak, with the pace of contraction accelerating slightly from 19.7% y/y in January to 20.5%. 

Capital Economics notes in a report on Monday:

• We wouldn't read too much into headline figures, as trade growth is highly volatile at the start of the year due to shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year. 
  
  
• Looking ahead, we expect export growth to fall back sharply this month as the New Year effect fades and for import growth to recover somewhat.