China's Steel Exports Surge Amid Overcapacity and Global Demand for 2025

China’s Steel Exports Set to Surge in 2025 Despite Trade Tensions

China, the world’s largest steel producer, is projected to continue exporting massive quantities of steel in 2025 to manage overcapacity and weak domestic demand, according to industry insiders. This comes as local consumption remains sluggish, largely due to a downturn in the property sector. Analysts predict exports between 90 and 100 million metric tons next year, up from the 80.71 million tons exported in the first nine months of 2024.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., a subsidiary of China Baowu Steel Group, exported a record 5.84 million tons in 2023 and aims for over 6 million tons this year. Other major Chinese steelmakers are also planning to ramp up exports.

Despite declining domestic output, global demand for Chinese steel remains strong, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and India. The World Steel Association predicts a 1.2% rebound in global demand by 2025, reaching 1.77 billion tons.

Trade Tensions Looming Over Exports

China’s increasing steel exports have raised trade tensions, with countries like Turkey and Indonesia imposing anti-dumping duties. In 2024 alone, 28 trade remedy cases were filed against Chinese steel products, compared to only eight in the previous three years.

While Chinese officials maintain that most steel is produced for domestic needs, analysts suggest that overproduction will continue to fuel exports, exacerbating trade disputes in 2025. Despite these challenges, China's low production costs and high global demand are expected to sustain its steel export levels.