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Cardano (ADA) has staged a short-term recovery after suffering steep losses over the past year, but historical October performance and upcoming U.S. economic data could test the cryptocurrency’s momentum.
According to CoinGecko data, ADA remains down about 68% over the past 12 months despite posting gains across the seven-day, 14-day and 30-day periods. Cardano’s prolonged decline began after ADA dropped from $0.954 in September 2025 to $0.138 by June 2026, losing its weekly 50-period moving average near $0.451.
Between September 2025 and June 2026, Cardano recorded only one positive month, April 2026. However, the trend has improved since July, and ADA could secure its third consecutive monthly gain if September ends in positive territory.
October is traditionally considered a favorable month for the broader cryptocurrency market, but Cardano’s historical record is less encouraging. Since 2018, ADA has finished October higher only twice. It gained 6.19% in October 2019 and 15.35% in October 2023, while recording losses in the other six years, including declines of 8.82% in 2024 and 24.42% in 2025.
For Cardano to establish a more convincing bullish reversal, stronger trading volume and a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows could provide evidence of improving momentum. At the time of writing, ADA was trading around $0.247, down 3.22% over the previous 24 hours as the broader crypto market cooled following last week’s rally.
Investors are also watching upcoming U.S. economic releases, including PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing data and nonfarm payrolls, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and cryptocurrency markets.
Meanwhile, development around Cardano’s Dijkstra upgrade continues. Intersect said stake pool operators and node operators remain focused on upgrading to Node version 11.1.2, released September 17 to address a testnet issue. Although the release is not yet hard-fork ready, it represents a milestone for integration and impact assessment. Haskell and Dingo are already producing Mainnet blocks, while Amaru and Gerolamo continue progressing toward Mainnet block production.
