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CBR left rates unchanged but surprised with a relatively tough rhetoric

Central Bank of Russia left its main lending rate at 11 percent on Friday as widely expected and sent out a relatively hawkish signal about its willingness to persist with moderately tight monetary policy despite signs of a stabilizing economy.

Given a recent uplift in global oil prices that has buoyed the rouble, helping to mitigate inflation concerns, few analysts has expected the c.bank to soften its rhetoric. But contrary to the expectations of some analysts, the bank's rhetoric remained relatively tough however, giving few grounds to expect imminent rate cuts.

In particular, the central bank said that the recent rally in oil prices might not sustain because of the "continued oversupply", adding that it saw this year's average oil price at USD 30/barrel. The CBR also said that CPI inflation might quicken in the middle of this year on base effects, adding that there were risks of inflation surpassing its 4.0% target in late 2017.

Overall, the CBR said that it might "conduct its moderately tight monetary policy for a more prolonged time than previously planned". The ruble erased prior losses following the decision, the USD/RUB fell to as low as 66.26 and is trading around 67.67 levels at 1200 GMT.

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